- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 1.71
- Σλ total
- 3.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 68%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Waalwijk v NAC Breda: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Waalwijk v NAC Breda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk (home) | 1.86 | 1.10 | 0.90 | 1.82 |
| NAC Breda (away) | 1.57 | 1.08 | 0.85 | 1.43 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.10 × 0.90 ≈ 1.82
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.26 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.31 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 1.71
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 41.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Waalwijk | 46.3% | 40.0% | 33.4% | 37.2% |
| X Draw | 23.7% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 19.8% |
| 2 NAC Breda | 30.0% | 44.0% | 41.6% | 43.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Waalwijk | 37.2% | 2.69 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +4.3% | |
| X · Draw | 19.8% | 5.06 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -25.9% | |
| 2 · NAC Breda | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -3.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -7.7% | |
| X2 | 62.8% | 1.59 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -10.9% | |
| 12 | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Waalwijk | 46.4% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB NAC Breda | 53.6% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.0% | 1.21 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -4.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.0% | 5.87 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -10.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.56 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -5.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.65 | 37.7% | -4.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -8.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -5.7% | |
| BTTS no | 31.6% | 3.16 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -14.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.4% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.6% | 2.66 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.0% | 3.03 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.684 × 1.38 − 1 = -0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Waalwijk | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDDDWL | DWLWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 20 / 43% for home, draw, away. Standings: Waalwijk 12th on 0, NAC Breda 13th on 0.
Form
Waalwijk, last six: D D D D W L – one win in total. Latest: 2–2 at home to Jong PSV U21. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
NAC Breda, last six: D W L W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Roda. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Waalwijk 1.57 · NAC Breda 1.71 · total 3.28. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 68%, odds 1.38 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Waalwijk 1–2 NAC Breda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.38 by the bookmakers.
What are the Waalwijk v NAC Breda probabilities?
Waalwijk win 37%, draw 20%, NAC Breda win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Waalwijk 1–2 NAC Breda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Waalwijk 1.57, NAC Breda 1.71 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 68%.
What time is Waalwijk vs NAC Breda?
Friday 4 September 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Mandemakers Stadion – Eerste Divisie.