- λ home
- 2.86
- λ away
- 1.20
- Σλ total
- 4.05
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 8.5%
Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax prediction & xG model: Almere City FC to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Almere City FC v Jong Ajax: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAlmere City FC to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Almere City FC v Jong Ajax are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC (home) | 1.86 | 1.26 | 1.19 | 2.78 |
| Jong Ajax (away) | 1.57 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 1.12 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.86 × 1.26 × 1.19 ≈ 2.78
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.90 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.33 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.82 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 4.05 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.86, λaway = 1.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 15.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 8.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Almere City FC | 71.4% | 73.0% | 64.6% | 69.5% |
| X Draw | 16.0% | 20.0% | 18.7% | 19.5% |
| 2 Jong Ajax | 12.6% | 7.0% | 16.7% | 11.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.068 → 6.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Almere City FC pick | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.45 | 69.0% | +0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.5% | 5.14 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -2.7% | |
| 2 · Jong Ajax | 11.1% | 9.02 | 5.60 | 17.9% | -37.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.9% | 1.12 | 1.13 | 88.5% | +0.5% | |
| X2 | 30.5% | 3.27 | 2.65 | 37.7% | -19.1% | |
| 12 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -9.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Almere City FC | 86.2% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jong Ajax | 13.8% | 7.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.3% | 1.12 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -3.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.7% | 9.36 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -19.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 24.8% | 4.04 | 3.55 | 28.2% | -12.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -4.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.4% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.1% | |
| BTTS no | 34.6% | 2.89 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -3.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.0% | 3.34 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.6% | 6.41 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.695 × 1.45 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.016 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Almere City FC | Jong Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLW | DWLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Almere City FC 69% to win. Standings: Almere City FC 9th on 0, Jong Ajax 18th on 0.
Form
Almere City FC have four wins from their last six (W W W D L W). Latest: 4–1 away at De Graafschap. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.
Jong Ajax, last six: D W L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Jong PSV U21. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Jong Ajax 0–2 Almere City FC. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Almere City FC 2.86 · Jong Ajax 1.20 · total 4.05. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Almere City FC to win, probability 69%, odds 1.45 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Almere City FC 2–1 Jong Ajax. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 20 Mar 2026Jong Ajax0–2Almere City FC
Eerste Divisie table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 15 | +30 | 38 |
| 2 |  Almere City FC | 15 | +21 | 31 |
| 3 |  VVV Venlo | 15 | +14 | 29 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 15 | +7 | 28 |
| 5 |  Roda | 15 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 15 | -2 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 15 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Waalwijk | 15 | +7 | 20 |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 15 | -2 | 19 |
| 11 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  FC OSS | 15 | -2 | 17 |
| 15 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 |  De Graafschap | 14 | -11 | 15 |
| 17 |  FC Eindhoven | 15 | -12 | 14 |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 15 | -11 | 12 |
| 19 |  Dordrecht | 15 | -17 | 12 |
| 20 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
The Model pick is Almere City FC to win with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.45 by the bookmakers.
What are the Almere City FC v Jong Ajax probabilities?
Almere City FC win 69%, draw 19%, Jong Ajax win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC 2–1 Jong Ajax is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC 2.86, Jong Ajax 1.20 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Friday 4 September 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Yanmar Stadion – Eerste Divisie.