- λ home
- 0.68
- λ away
- 1.82
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 0–1 14.9%
Sassuolo vs Juventus prediction & xG model: Juventus to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sassuolo v Juventus: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipJuventus to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sassuolo v Juventus are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 15 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo (home) | 1.55 | 0.99 | 0.86 | 1.33 |
| Juventus (away) | 1.43 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.77 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 0.99 × 0.86 ≈ 1.33
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.10 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.68, λaway = 1.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 64.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 14.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sassuolo | 28.4% | 10.0% | 19.3% | 13.9% |
| X Draw | 24.3% | 18.0% | 24.7% | 20.8% |
| 2 Juventus | 47.4% | 72.0% | 56.1% | 65.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.081 → 8.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sassuolo | 13.9% | 7.20 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -33.3% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.81 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -22.0% | |
| 2 · Juventus pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +7.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -23.7% | |
| X2 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 85.5% | +0.7% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sassuolo | 17.5% | 5.70 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventus | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -7.6% | |
| BTTS no | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -5.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.0% | 7.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.119 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWLWL | DWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Juventus 65%, Sassuolo 14%. Standings: Sassuolo 17th on 8, Juventus 7th on 18.
Form
Sassuolo have two wins from their last six (D D W L W L). Latest: 2–2 away at Bologna. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Juventus, last six: D W W W L W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to AC Milan. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sassuolo 0.68 · Juventus 1.82 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Juventus to win, probability 65%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Sassuolo 0–1 Juventus. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
The Model pick is Juventus to win with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sassuolo v Juventus probabilities?
Sassuolo win 14%, draw 21%, Juventus win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
Sassuolo 0–1 Juventus is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sassuolo vs Juventus?
Sassuolo 0.68, Juventus 1.82 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Sassuolo vs Juventus?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Mapei Stadium – Serie A.