- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 1.49
- Σλ total
- 3.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 61%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.5%
Lecce vs Monza prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Lecce v Monza: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for Lecce v Monza are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce (home) | 1.55 | 0.85 | 1.34 | 1.78 |
| Monza (away) | 1.43 | 1.02 | 1.21 | 1.77 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 0.85 × 1.34 ≈ 1.78
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.55 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 1.49
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lecce | 38.6% | 47.0% | 35.2% | 42.1% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 19.0% | 31.8% | 24.4% |
| 2 Monza | 38.4% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lecce | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +10.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.10 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -29.3% | |
| 2 · Monza | 33.6% | 2.98 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -6.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.0% | |
| X2 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -16.6% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +5.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lecce | 55.6% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Monza | 44.4% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 17.5% | 5.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +5.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.5% | 2.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.3% | 2.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.2% | 3.55 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.551 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.052 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.057 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.4% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lecce | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWLWD | DWLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Lecce ahead at 42%, against 34% for Monza and 24% for the draw. Standings: Lecce 14th on 10, Monza 18th on 7.
Form
Lecce have two wins from their last six (L L W L W D). Latest: 0–1 away at Cagliari. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Monza have two wins from their last six (D W L L W D). Latest: 1–1 away at Parma. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lecce 1.68 · Monza 1.49 · total 3.17. Goals expected – 61% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Lecce 2–1 Monza. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lecce vs Monza?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lecce v Monza probabilities?
Lecce win 42%, draw 24%, Monza win 34%.
What is the most probable score for Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce 2–1 Monza is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lecce vs Monza?
Lecce 1.68, Monza 1.49 – over 2.5 at 61%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Lecce vs Monza?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Via del Mare – Serie A.