- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 1.18
- Σλ total
- 3.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 63%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.8%
Fiorentina vs Torino prediction & xG model: Fiorentina to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Fiorentina v Torino: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFiorentina to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Fiorentina v Torino are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina (home) | 1.55 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.54 |
| Torino (away) | 1.43 | 0.94 | 1.15 | 1.54 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.00 × 1.00 ≈ 1.54
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.09 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.25 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 1.18
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Fiorentina | 37.5% | 64.0% | 47.4% | 57.0% |
| X Draw | 25.0% | 19.0% | 28.0% | 22.8% |
| 2 Torino | 37.5% | 17.0% | 24.6% | 20.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.083 → 8.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Fiorentina pick | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +11.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -24.8% | |
| 2 · Torino | 20.2% | 4.95 | 3.75 | 26.7% | -24.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.3% | |
| X2 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -24.8% | |
| 12 | 77.2% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Fiorentina | 73.8% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Torino | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.5% | 6.07 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.9% | 2.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +2.7% | |
| BTTS no | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -17.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.3% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.7% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.1% | 4.99 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.570 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.112 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.118 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Fiorentina | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWDDW | LLLWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Fiorentina ahead at 57%, against 20% for Torino and 23% for the draw. Standings: Fiorentina 15th on 9, Torino 11th on 14.
Form
Fiorentina have two wins from their last six (L L W D D W). Latest: 0–3 at home to Frosinone. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Torino, last six: L L L W D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Monza. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Fiorentina 2.07 · Torino 1.18 · total 3.25. Goals expected – 63% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Fiorentina to win, probability 57%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Fiorentina 2–1 Torino. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Fiorentina vs Torino?
The Model pick is Fiorentina to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Fiorentina v Torino probabilities?
Fiorentina win 57%, draw 23%, Torino win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Fiorentina 2–1 Torino is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Fiorentina vs Torino?
Fiorentina 2.07, Torino 1.18 – over 2.5 at 63%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Fiorentina vs Torino?
Saturday 5 September 2026, 14:00 WAT, at Stadio Artemio Franchi – Serie A.