- λ home
- 2.06
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.6%
AS Roma vs Atalanta prediction & xG model: AS Roma to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
AS Roma v Atalanta: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAS Roma to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for AS Roma v Atalanta are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma (home) | 1.55 | 1.61 | 1.13 | 2.84 |
| Atalanta (away) | 1.43 | 1.01 | 0.77 | 1.11 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.61 × 1.13 ≈ 2.84
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.94 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.06, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AS Roma | 72.6% | 68.0% | 53.6% | 62.0% |
| X Draw | 15.4% | 21.0% | 25.8% | 23.0% |
| 2 Atalanta | 11.9% | 11.0% | 20.6% | 15.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AS Roma pick | 62.0% | 1.61 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +7.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -17.2% | |
| 2 · Atalanta | 15.0% | 6.65 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -32.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +0.3% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | 2.63 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -22.0% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -0.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AS Roma | 80.5% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atalanta | 19.5% | 5.12 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +2.1% | |
| BTTS no | 43.3% | 2.31 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -15.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.2% | 6.16 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.620 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.072 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.099 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AS Roma | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDLWL | WWWDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 0.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – AS Roma 62% to win. Standings: AS Roma 3rd on 27, Atalanta 12th on 14.
Form
AS Roma, last six: W W D L W L – three wins in total. Latest: 4–0 away at Lecce. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Atalanta, last six: W W W D W W – five wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Bologna. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AS Roma 2.06 · Atalanta 0.94 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: AS Roma to win, probability 62%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.61. Most probable score: AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
The Model pick is AS Roma to win with a model probability of 62, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the AS Roma v Atalanta probabilities?
AS Roma win 62%, draw 23%, Atalanta win 15%.
What is the most probable score for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 2–0 Atalanta is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 2.06, Atalanta 0.94 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Saturday 5 September 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Stadio Olimpico – Serie A.