- λ home
- 1.09
- λ away
- 0.91
- Σλ total
- 2.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.7%
Napoli vs Como prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Napoli v Como: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Napoli v Como are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli (home) | 1.55 | 1.16 | 0.64 | 1.15 |
| Como (away) | 1.43 | 1.10 | 0.81 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 1.16 × 0.64 ≈ 1.15
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.42 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.09, λaway = 0.91
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 39.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Napoli | 32.9% | 46.0% | 37.1% | 42.3% |
| X Draw | 28.9% | 19.0% | 32.0% | 24.5% |
| 2 Como | 38.3% | 35.0% | 30.9% | 33.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Napoli | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.09 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -29.1% | |
| 2 · Como | 33.3% | 3.00 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -0.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 66.7% | 1.50 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -9.3% | |
| X2 | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -13.4% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +5.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Napoli | 55.9% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Como | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -9.2% | |
| BTTS no pick | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -4.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.4% | 4.46 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.525 × 1.83 − 1 = -0.040 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWWL | DDDWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Napoli ahead at 42%, against 33% for Como and 24% for the draw. Standings: Napoli 10th on 15, Como 5th on 23.
Form
Napoli, last six: W W D W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Genoa. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Como have three wins from their last six (D D D W W W). Latest: 1–1 away at Udinese. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Napoli 1.09 · Como 0.91 · total 2.00. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Napoli 1–0 Como. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie A table
League page →
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Napoli vs Como?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Napoli v Como probabilities?
Napoli win 42%, draw 24%, Como win 33%.
What is the most probable score for Napoli vs Como?
Napoli 1–0 Como is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Napoli vs Como?
Napoli 1.09, Como 0.91 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Napoli vs Como?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 17:30 WAT, at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona – Serie A.