- λ home
- 0.78
- λ away
- 2.22
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–2 12.3%
Cagliari vs Inter prediction & xG model: Inter to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Cagliari v Inter: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipInter to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for Cagliari v Inter are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.78, λaway = 2.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 11.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 70.3%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 12.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cagliari | – | 8.0% | 13.3% | 10.2% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| 2 Inter | – | 72.0% | 64.6% | 68.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.075 → 7.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cagliari | 10.2% | 9.79 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -28.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -12.2% | |
| 2 · Inter pick | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -0.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -14.4% | |
| X2 | 89.8% | 1.11 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -1.2% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cagliari | 12.9% | 7.74 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Inter | 87.1% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +7.2% | |
| BTTS no | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -18.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 12.7% | 7.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.4% | 2.74 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 50.8% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.689 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cagliari | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDWD | WWWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Inter 69%, Cagliari 10%. Standings: Cagliari 9th on 16, Inter 2nd on 28.
Form
Cagliari have three wins from their last six (W W D D W D). Latest: 1–0 away at Parma. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Inter, last six: W W W D D W – four wins in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to Monza. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Apr 2026): Inter 3–0 Cagliari. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cagliari 0.78 · Inter 2.22 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Inter to win, probability 69%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.45. Most probable score: Cagliari 0–2 Inter. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Apr 2026Inter3–0Cagliari
Serie A table
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League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cagliari vs Inter?
The Model pick is Inter to win with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cagliari v Inter probabilities?
Cagliari win 10%, draw 21%, Inter win 69%.
What is the most probable score for Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 0–2 Inter is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 0.78, Inter 2.22 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Cagliari vs Inter?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Unipol Domus – Serie A.