- λ home
- 2.19
- λ away
- 1.20
- Σλ total
- 3.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
Aarhus vs Sonderjyske prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Aarhus v Sonderjyske: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Aarhus v Sonderjyske are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus (home) | 1.68 | 1.03 | 1.32 | 2.29 |
| Sonderjyske (away) | 1.42 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 1.16 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.03 × 1.32 ≈ 2.29
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.45 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.39 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.19, λaway = 1.20
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aarhus | 62.1% | 62.0% | 58.9% | 60.7% |
| X Draw | 20.0% | 15.0% | 22.8% | 18.3% |
| 2 Sonderjyske | 17.9% | 23.0% | 18.3% | 21.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Aarhus | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 18.3% | 5.47 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -26.8% | |
| 2 · Sonderjyske | 21.0% | 4.76 | 5.00 | 20.0% | +5.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -7.6% | |
| X2 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 81.7% | 1.22 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Aarhus | 74.3% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sonderjyske | 25.7% | 3.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.8% | 6.76 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.2% | 2.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +1.2% | |
| BTTS no | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.9% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.6% | 5.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.653 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.021 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Aarhus | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWLDL | WLDLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Aarhus 61% to win. Standings: Aarhus 8th on 15, Sonderjyske 12th on 9.
Form
Aarhus have two wins from their last six (W D W L D L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Vendsyssel FF. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Sonderjyske have two wins from their last six (W L D L W L). Latest: 4–2 at home to Randers FC. Per match: 1.8 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Mar 2026): Sonderjyske 1–1 Aarhus. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Aarhus 2.19 · Sonderjyske 1.20 · total 3.39. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: Aarhus 2–1 Sonderjyske. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Mar 2026Sonderjyske1–1Aarhus
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Aarhus v Sonderjyske probabilities?
Aarhus win 61%, draw 18%, Sonderjyske win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?
Aarhus 2–1 Sonderjyske is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?
Aarhus 2.19, Sonderjyske 1.20 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Aarhus vs Sonderjyske?
Monday 12 October 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Vejlby Stadion – Superliga.