- λ home
- 2.81
- λ away
- 0.98
- Σλ total
- 3.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 73%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–0 8.9%
FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Copenhagen (home) | 1.68 | 1.26 | 1.03 | 2.19 |
| AC Horsens (away) | 1.42 | 1.04 | 0.66 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.68 × 1.26 × 1.03 ≈ 2.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.17 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.79 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.81, λaway = 0.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 75.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 14.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 10.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 8.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Copenhagen | 64.2% | 75.0% | 73.9% | 74.6% |
| X Draw | 20.3% | 15.0% | 16.8% | 15.8% |
| 2 AC Horsens | 15.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.082 → 8.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Copenhagen | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.8% | |
| X · Draw | 15.8% | 6.35 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · AC Horsens | 9.7% | 10.33 | 10.00 | 10.0% | -3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.3% | 1.11 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 25.4% | 3.93 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -3.3% | |
| 12 | 84.2% | 1.19 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Copenhagen | 88.5% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AC Horsens | 11.5% | 8.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 10.8% | 9.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | 3.70 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -17.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 56.6% | 1.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.9% | 7.72 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.552 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.022 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.026 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.6% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Copenhagen | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLD | WWLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC Copenhagen 75% to win. Standings: FC Copenhagen 1st on 32, AC Horsens 7th on 16.
Form
FC Copenhagen have four wins from their last six (W W W W L D). Latest: 5–0 away at Odense. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
AC Horsens, last six: W W L W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 5–2 away at Sonderjyske. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): FC Copenhagen 3–2 AC Horsens. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Copenhagen 2.81 · AC Horsens 0.98 · total 3.79. Goals expected – 73% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: FC Copenhagen 2–1 AC Horsens. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Jul 2026FC Copenhagen3–2AC Horsens
Superliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 14 | +17 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 14 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Viborg | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | +8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Brondby | 14 | +2 | 22 |
| 6 |  Odense | 14 | -3 | 17 |
| 7 |  AC Horsens | 14 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 |  Aarhus | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 |  Silkeborg | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lyngby | 14 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Randers FC | 14 | -13 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 14 | -14 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Copenhagen v AC Horsens probabilities?
FC Copenhagen win 75%, draw 16%, AC Horsens win 10%.
What is the most probable score for FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens?
FC Copenhagen 2–1 AC Horsens is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens?
FC Copenhagen 2.81, AC Horsens 0.98 – over 2.5 at 73%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is FC Copenhagen vs AC Horsens?
Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Parken Stadium – Superliga.