- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.5%
Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius prediction & xG model: Kauno Žalgiris to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipKauno Žalgiris to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Žalgiris (home) | 1.56 | 1.34 | 0.81 | 1.69 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius (away) | 1.24 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.98 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 1.34 × 0.81 ≈ 1.69
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.67 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kauno Žalgiris | 53.3% | 63.0% | 49.9% | 57.5% |
| X Draw | 25.3% | 20.0% | 26.4% | 22.7% |
| 2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 21.4% | 17.0% | 23.6% | 19.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kauno Žalgiris pick | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +3.5% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -22.8% | |
| 2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 19.8% | 5.05 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -24.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 80.2% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.8% | |
| X2 | 42.5% | 2.35 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -17.1% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kauno Žalgiris | 74.4% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 25.6% | 3.91 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 18.0% | 5.56 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.575 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.035 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.044 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kauno Žalgiris | FK Zalgiris Vilnius |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWWL | WWLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Kauno Žalgiris ahead at 58%, against 20% for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 23% for the draw. Standings: Kauno Žalgiris 1st on 58, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3rd on 54.
Form
Kauno Žalgiris have three wins from their last six (L W L W W L). Latest: 1–4 at home to Brann. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for FK Zalgiris Vilnius: W W L L W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 4–1 at home to Hegelmann Litauen. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Kauno Žalgiris 1, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3–2 Kauno Žalgiris. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kauno Žalgiris 1.80 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0.95 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Kauno Žalgiris to win, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Kauno Žalgiris 1–0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Sep 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius3–2Kauno Žalgiris
- 31 May 2026Kauno Žalgiris0–1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 5 Apr 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius0–3Kauno Žalgiris
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
The Model pick is Kauno Žalgiris to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kauno Žalgiris v FK Zalgiris Vilnius probabilities?
Kauno Žalgiris win 58%, draw 23%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Kauno Žalgiris 1–0 FK Zalgiris Vilnius is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Kauno Žalgiris 1.80, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0.95 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Kauno Žalgiris vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Monday 26 October 2026, 17:45 WAT – A Lyga.