- λ home
- 1.98
- λ away
- 0.69
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.7%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen prediction & xG model: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFK Zalgiris Vilnius to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (33 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius (home) | 1.56 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 2.23 |
| Hegelmann Litauen (away) | 1.24 | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.83 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.56 × 1.17 × 1.22 ≈ 2.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.06 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.98, λaway = 0.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 68.3% | 69.0% | 65.6% | 67.6% |
| X Draw | 19.3% | 21.0% | 20.6% | 20.8% |
| 2 Hegelmann Litauen | 12.4% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 11.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius pick | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.1% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -9.8% | |
| 2 · Hegelmann Litauen | 11.6% | 8.64 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -24.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.4% | 1.13 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -2.7% | |
| X2 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -9.3% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -6.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 85.4% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hegelmann Litauen | 14.6% | 6.84 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -10.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -5.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.3% | 8.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.676 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.081 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLWDW | DDLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 0-4-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 68%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3rd on 54, Hegelmann Litauen 8th on 26.
Form
FK Zalgiris Vilnius, last six: W L L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Suduva Marijampole. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Hegelmann Litauen, last six: D D L D D L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Suduva Marijampole. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 3: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1, Hegelmann Litauen 1, drawn 1, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jul 2026): Hegelmann Litauen 2–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.98 · Hegelmann Litauen 0.69 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win, probability 68%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 27 Jul 2026Hegelmann Litauen2–3FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 24 May 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius1–3Hegelmann Litauen
- 22 Mar 2026Hegelmann Litauen0–0FK Zalgiris Vilnius
A Lyga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 32 | +37 | 58 |
| 2 |  Suduva Marijampole | 32 | +11 | 56 |
| 3 |  FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 32 | +15 | 54 |
| 4 |  TransINVEST Vilnius | 32 | +12 | 52 |
| 5 |  Banga | 32 | +1 | 42 |
| 6 |  Džiugas Telšiai | 32 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 |  Panevėžys | 32 | -14 | 38 |
| 8 |  Hegelmann Litauen | 32 | -25 | 26 |
| 9 |  Šiauliai | 32 | -32 | 24 |
| 10 |  FK Trakai | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
The Model pick is FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the FK Zalgiris Vilnius v Hegelmann Litauen probabilities?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius win 68%, draw 21%, Hegelmann Litauen win 12%.
What is the most probable score for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Hegelmann Litauen is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.98, Hegelmann Litauen 0.69 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen?
Sunday 18 October 2026, 15:00 WAT, at LFF stadionas – A Lyga.