Lithuania A Lyga Sun 13 Sep 2026 · Marijampole Football Arena Full time

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

LLWLW

37%P(1)23%P(X)41%P(2)

λ home: 1.25
λ away: 1.33
Σλ total: 2.58
P(over 2.5): 48%
P(BTTS): 58%
Modal score: 1–1 12.6%

Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius prediction & xG model: Both teams to score

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Suduva Marijampole v FK Zalgiris Vilnius: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Suduva Marijampole v FK Zalgiris Vilnius are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Suduva Marijampole (home)	1.56	1.11	0.81	1.40
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (away)	1.24	1.17	0.81	1.17

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.56 × 1.11 × 0.81 ≈ 1.40

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	2.57	64%
Statistical xG feed	2.58	36%
Blended total λ	2.58	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.25, λ_away = 1.33

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Suduva Marijampole λ = 1.25

028.6%

135.8%

222.4%

39.3%

42.9%

5+0.9%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius λ = 1.33

026.5%

135.2%

223.4%

310.4%

43.4%

5+1.2%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Sud \ FK 012345+

07.6106.73.01.0·

19.5138.43.71.2·

25.97.95.22.30.8·

32.53.32.21.0··

40.81.00.7···

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 34.9%
Σ draw cells: 26.5%
Σ away-win cells: 38.6%
Most probable score: 1–1 · 12.6%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Suduva Marijampole	41.3%	39.0%	34.1%	36.9%
X Draw	27.7%	18.0%	28.8%	22.5%
2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius	30.9%	43.0%	37.2%	40.6%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Suduva Marijampole	36.9%	2.71	2.62	38.2%	-3.3%
X · Draw	22.5%	4.44	3.10	32.3%	-30.2%
2 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius	40.6%	2.47	2.40	41.7%	-2.7%
Double chance
1X	59.4%	1.68	1.50	66.7%	-10.8%
X2	63.1%	1.59	1.40	71.4%	-11.7%
12	77.5%	1.29	1.35	74.1%	+4.6%
Draw no bet
DNB Suduva Marijampole	47.7%	2.10	–	–	–
DNB FK Zalgiris Vilnius	52.3%	1.91	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	72.9%	1.37	–	–	–
Under 1.5	27.1%	3.69	–	–	–
Over 2.5	47.7%	2.10	–	–	–
Under 2.5	52.3%	1.91	–	–	–
Over 3.5	26.0%	3.85	–	–	–
Under 3.5	74.0%	1.35	–	–	–
Both teams to score
BTTS yes pick	57.7%	1.73	1.73	57.8%	-0.2%
BTTS no	42.3%	2.36	2.00	50.0%	-15.4%
Half-time
HT 1	27.2%	3.67	–	–	–
HT X	43.3%	2.31	–	–	–
HT 2	29.4%	3.40	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickBoth teams to score

Probability57.7%

Fair odds1.73

Best odds1.73

EV per unit-0.2%

EV = 0.577 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Suduva Marijampole	FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Sequence	LWWWWW	WLWLLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	5-0-1	2-0-4
Points per match	2.50	1.00
Goals for / match	2.00	1.17
Goals against / match	1.33	2.33
Over 2.5	67%	50%
BTTS	67%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	0%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Probabilities are almost level: 37 / 23 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Suduva Marijampole 2nd on 56, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3rd on 54.

Form

Suduva Marijampole have five wins from their last six (L W W W W W). Latest: 1–5 away at Kauno Žalgiris. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius have two wins from their last six (W L W L L L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Šiauliai. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded.

Head to head

Previous 2: Suduva Marijampole 0, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (May 2026): Suduva Marijampole 1–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Suduva Marijampole 1.25 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1.33 · total 2.58. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 58%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.73. Most probable score: Suduva Marijampole 1–2 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.

Head-to-head

Every meeting →

10 May 2026Suduva Marijampole1–1FK Zalgiris Vilnius
10 Mar 2026FK Zalgiris Vilnius1–0Suduva Marijampole

A Lyga table

League page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kauno Žalgiris	32	16	10	6	+37	58
2	Suduva Marijampole	32	15	11	6	+11	56
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	32	16	6	10	+15	54
4	TransINVEST Vilnius	32	15	7	10	+12	52
5	Banga	32	11	9	12	+1	42
6	Džiugas Telšiai	32	11	9	12	-5	42
7	Panevėžys	32	11	5	16	-14	38
8	Hegelmann Litauen	32	4	14	14	-25	26
9	Šiauliai	32	5	9	18	-32	24
10	FK Trakai	0	0	0	0	0	0