Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Hoima City Stadium Full time

Uganda

DWWD

1–1

Half-time 1–1

Botswana

67%P(1)23%P(X)10%P(2)

λ home: 1.88
λ away: 0.60
Σλ total: 2.48
P(over 2.5): 42%
P(BTTS): 48%
Modal score: 1–0 15.7%

Uganda vs Botswana prediction & xG model: Uganda to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Uganda v Botswana: how the Arena called it

Full time: 1–1
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUganda to win✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Uganda v Botswana are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 3 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Uganda (home)	1.66	0.89	1.05	–
Botswana (away)	1.38	1.05	0.72	–

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.66 × 0.89 × 1.05 ≈ –

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.75	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.25	55%
Blended total λ	2.48	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.88, λ_away = 0.60

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Uganda λ = 1.88

015.3%

128.7%

227.0%

316.9%

47.9%

5+4.2%

Botswana λ = 0.60

054.7%

133.0%

210.0%

32.0%

40.3%

5+0.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Uga \ Bot012345+

08.45.11.5···

1169.52.90.6··

2158.92.70.5··

39.25.61.7···

44.32.60.8···

5+2.31.4····

Σ home-win cells: 67.9%
Σ draw cells: 20.9%
Σ away-win cells: 11.2%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 15.7%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Uganda	–	73.0%	58.2%	66.8%
X Draw	–	21.0%	26.1%	23.1%
2 Botswana	–	6.0%	15.7%	10.1%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.080 → 8.0% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Uganda pick	66.8%	1.50	1.59	62.9%	+6.2%
X · Draw	23.1%	4.32	3.55	28.2%	-17.9%
2 · Botswana	10.1%	9.94	5.91	16.9%	-40.5%
Double chance
1X	89.9%	1.11	1.09	91.7%	-2.0%
X2	33.2%	3.01	2.23	44.8%	-26.0%
12	76.9%	1.30	1.25	80.0%	-3.9%
Draw no bet
DNB Uganda	86.9%	1.15	–	–	–
DNB Botswana	13.1%	7.64	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	67.5%	1.48	1.41	70.9%	-4.9%
Under 1.5	32.5%	3.07	2.52	39.7%	-18.0%
Over 2.5	42.1%	2.38	2.38	42.0%	+0.2%
Under 2.5	57.9%	1.73	1.53	65.4%	-11.4%
Over 3.5	21.8%	4.60	4.60	21.7%	+0.1%
Under 3.5	78.2%	1.28	1.13	88.5%	-11.6%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	47.7%	2.10	2.33	42.9%	+11.2%
BTTS no	52.3%	1.91	1.54	64.9%	-19.5%
Half-time
HT 1	47.3%	2.11	–	–	–
HT X	41.4%	2.42	–	–	–
HT 2	11.3%	8.83	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUganda to win

Probability66.8%

Fair odds1.50

Best odds1.59

EV per unit+6.2%

EV = 0.668 × 1.59 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.105 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 4 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Uganda	Botswana
Sequence	DWWD	DD
Matches	4	2
W-D-L	2-2-0	0-2-0
Points per match	2.00	1.00
Goals for / match	1.25	2.00
Goals against / match	0.50	2.00
Over 2.5	0%	100%
BTTS	50%	100%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%

Match analysisUganda vs Botswana – full model breakdownRead →

Graded reviewUganda 1-1 Botswana: Result v xG Model – Africa Cup Of Nations QualificationRead →xG previewUganda vs Botswana Prediction, xG & Stats: Uganda to win (Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification)Read →xG previewUganda vs Botswana Match Analysis: xG, Probabilities & PredictionRead →

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Strong home favourites – Uganda 67% to win. Standings: Uganda 2nd on 13, Botswana 2nd on 8.

Form

Uganda have two wins from their last four (D W W D). Latest: 1–1 at home to Congo DR. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Uganda 1.88 · Botswana 0.60 · total 2.48. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 42%, BTTS 48%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Uganda to win, probability 67%, odds 1.59 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Uganda 1–0 Botswana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.