- λ home
- 2.18
- λ away
- 0.65
- Σλ total
- 2.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 2–0 14.0%
Angola vs South Sudan prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Angola 74% · draw 15% · South Sudan 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Angola v South Sudan: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Angola v South Sudan are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.83 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.83 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.18, λaway = 0.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Angola | – | 66.0% | 84.4% | 73.7% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 11.9% | 15.5% |
| 2 South Sudan | – | 16.0% | 3.7% | 10.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Angola | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -19.6% | |
| X · Draw | 15.5% | 6.47 | 7.70 | 13.0% | +19.0% | |
| 2 · South Sudan | 10.8% | 9.24 | 25.00 | 4.0% | +170.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.2% | 1.12 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -9.9% | |
| X2 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 5.90 | 16.9% | +55.1% | |
| 12 | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -11.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Angola | 87.2% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB South Sudan | 12.8% | 7.81 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.30 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -8.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -12.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 2.02 | 49.5% | -6.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 3.10 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -11.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.5% | 2.15 | 3.56 | 28.1% | +65.5% | |
| BTTS no | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -33.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.2% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 10.9% | 9.21 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.677 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.086 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 4 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Angola | South Sudan |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWD | LLLW |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-0 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / match | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% |
| BTTS | 50% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 25% |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Angola 74% to win. Standings: Angola 1st on 14, South Sudan 4th on 3.
Form
Angola, last four: W D W D – two wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Malawi. Per match: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded.
South Sudan, last four: L L L W – one win in total. Latest: 0–5 at home to Egypt. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Angola 2.18 · South Sudan 0.65 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 68%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.48. Most probable score: Angola 2–0 South Sudan. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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TogoFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Angola vs South Sudan?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Angola v South Sudan probabilities?
Angola win 74%, draw 15%, South Sudan win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Angola vs South Sudan?
Angola 2–0 South Sudan is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Angola vs South Sudan?
Angola 2.18, South Sudan 0.65 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Angola vs South Sudan?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.