- λ home
- 2.46
- λ away
- 0.92
- Σλ total
- 3.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.3%
Gazalkent vs Respublika FA prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Gazalkent v Respublika FA: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Gazalkent v Respublika FA are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (26 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gazalkent (home) | 1.66 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 1.80 |
| Respublika FA (away) | 1.38 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.10 × 0.99 ≈ 1.80
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.12 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.92 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.77 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.46, λaway = 0.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 71.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gazalkent | 48.2% | 74.0% | 68.1% | 71.5% |
| X Draw | 24.0% | 15.0% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| 2 Respublika FA | 27.8% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gazalkent | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -5.6% | |
| X · Draw | 16.0% | 6.27 | 5.21 | 19.2% | -16.9% | |
| 2 · Respublika FA | 12.5% | 7.99 | 6.16 | 16.2% | -22.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.5% | 1.14 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -8.1% | |
| X2 | 28.5% | 3.51 | 2.76 | 36.2% | -21.4% | |
| 12 | 84.0% | 1.19 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -10.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gazalkent | 85.1% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Respublika FA | 14.9% | 6.72 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.1% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.9% | 6.73 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -12.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | 3.25 | 3.35 | 29.9% | +3.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -15.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -0.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -10.3% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.58 | 38.8% | -5.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.6% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 33.6% | 2.97 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.8% | 7.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.521 × 1.91 − 1 = -0.006 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gazalkent | Respublika FA |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLWWW | DDLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Gazalkent at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Gazalkent 7th on 42, Respublika FA 9th on 34.
Form
Gazalkent, last six: L D L W W W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Aral. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Respublika FA have two wins from their last six (D D L D W W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Shortan. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Respublika FA 0–7 Gazalkent. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gazalkent 2.46 · Respublika FA 0.92 · total 3.39. High total: over 2.5 69%, BTTS 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 52%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.92. Most probable score: Gazalkent 2–0 Respublika FA. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Aug 2026Respublika FA0–7Gazalkent
Pro League A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 26 | +35 | 61 |
| 2 |  Shortan | 26 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Metalourg | 26 | +35 | 52 |
| 4 |  FarDu | 26 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 |  Olimpik-Mobiuz | 26 | +24 | 48 |
| 6 |  Kattaqurgon | 26 | +12 | 46 |
| 7 |  Gazalkent | 26 | +11 | 42 |
| 8 |  Lochin | 26 | +6 | 40 |
| 9 |  Respublika FA | 26 | +1 | 34 |
| 10 |  Jayxun | 26 | -10 | 28 |
| 11 |  Yaypan | 26 | -17 | 28 |
| 12 |  BuxDu | 26 | -35 | 16 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor II | 26 | -40 | 13 |
| 14 |  Qiziriq | 26 | -54 | 4 |
More Pro League A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gazalkent vs Respublika FA?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gazalkent v Respublika FA probabilities?
Gazalkent win 72%, draw 16%, Respublika FA win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Gazalkent vs Respublika FA?
Gazalkent 2–0 Respublika FA is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gazalkent vs Respublika FA?
Gazalkent 2.46, Respublika FA 0.92 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Gazalkent vs Respublika FA?
Monday 9 November 2026, 10:00 WAT – Pro League A.