- λ home
- 0.91
- λ away
- 2.14
- Σλ total
- 3.06
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 0–2 10.8%
Jayxun vs Olimpik-Mobiuz prediction & xG model: Olimpik-Mobiuz to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Jayxun v Olimpik-Mobiuz: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOlimpik-Mobiuz to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Jayxun v Olimpik-Mobiuz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (24 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayxun (home) | 1.66 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 1.26 |
| Olimpik-Mobiuz (away) | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.01 | 1.80 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.84 × 0.90 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.05 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.92 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.17 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.06 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.91, λaway = 2.14
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 14.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 10.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jayxun | 26.4% | 11.0% | 20.3% | 14.9% |
| X Draw | 24.2% | 18.0% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| 2 Olimpik-Mobiuz | 49.5% | 71.0% | 58.1% | 65.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Jayxun | 14.9% | 6.70 | 4.43 | 22.6% | -33.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.5% | 5.13 | 4.17 | 24.0% | -18.7% | |
| 2 · Olimpik-Mobiuz pick | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +1.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.4% | 2.90 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -27.0% | |
| X2 | 85.1% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -4.7% | |
| 12 | 80.5% | 1.24 | 1.13 | 88.5% | -9.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Jayxun | 18.5% | 5.40 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Olimpik-Mobiuz | 81.5% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.1% | 5.24 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.49 | 67.1% | -10.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.37 | 42.2% | -5.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -11.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -9.5% | |
| BTTS no | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -7.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.3% | 6.53 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 47.8% | 2.09 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.656 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.016 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.030 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Jayxun | Olimpik-Mobiuz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLLW | WWWDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Olimpik-Mobiuz 66%, Jayxun 15%. Standings: Jayxun 10th on 28, Olimpik-Mobiuz 5th on 48.
Form
Jayxun have two wins from their last six (W D L L L W). Latest: 3–2 away at BuxDu. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Olimpik-Mobiuz have three wins from their last six (W W W D L D). Latest: 3–1 at home to Pakhtakor II. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Aug 2026): Olimpik-Mobiuz 2–1 Jayxun. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Jayxun 0.91 · Olimpik-Mobiuz 2.14 · total 3.06. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Olimpik-Mobiuz to win, probability 66%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Jayxun 0–2 Olimpik-Mobiuz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Aug 2026Olimpik-Mobiuz2–1Jayxun
Pro League A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aral | 26 | +35 | 61 |
| 2 |  Shortan | 26 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Metalourg | 26 | +35 | 52 |
| 4 |  FarDu | 26 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 |  Olimpik-Mobiuz | 26 | +24 | 48 |
| 6 |  Kattaqurgon | 26 | +12 | 46 |
| 7 |  Gazalkent | 26 | +11 | 42 |
| 8 |  Lochin | 26 | +6 | 40 |
| 9 |  Respublika FA | 26 | +1 | 34 |
| 10 |  Jayxun | 26 | -10 | 28 |
| 11 |  Yaypan | 26 | -17 | 28 |
| 12 |  BuxDu | 26 | -35 | 16 |
| 13 |  Pakhtakor II | 26 | -40 | 13 |
| 14 |  Qiziriq | 26 | -54 | 4 |
More Pro League A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Jayxun vs Olimpik-Mobiuz?
The Model pick is Olimpik-Mobiuz to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Jayxun v Olimpik-Mobiuz probabilities?
Jayxun win 15%, draw 20%, Olimpik-Mobiuz win 66%.
What is the most probable score for Jayxun vs Olimpik-Mobiuz?
Jayxun 0–2 Olimpik-Mobiuz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Jayxun vs Olimpik-Mobiuz?
Jayxun 0.91, Olimpik-Mobiuz 2.14 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Jayxun vs Olimpik-Mobiuz?
Monday 9 November 2026, 10:00 WAT – Pro League A.