- λ home
- 0.89
- λ away
- 0.80
- Σλ total
- 1.69
- P(over 2.5)
- 31%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 0–0 18.5%
Hungary vs Northern Ireland prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Hungary 45% · draw 28% · Northern Ireland 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Hungary v Northern Ireland: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Hungary v Northern Ireland are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hungary (home) | 1.28 | 0.99 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| Northern Ireland (away) | 1.25 | 0.94 | 0.76 | 0.89 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.28 × 0.99 × 0.58 ≈ 0.74
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.13 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.24 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.69 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.89, λaway = 0.80
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 35.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 34.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.4%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 18.5%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hungary | 27.3% | 64.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% |
| X Draw | 36.6% | 17.0% | 27.9% | 28.4% |
| 2 Northern Ireland | 36.1% | 19.0% | 22.1% | 26.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.031 → 3.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hungary | 45.3% | 2.21 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -12.0% | |
| X · Draw | 28.4% | 3.52 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -1.2% | |
| 2 · Northern Ireland | 26.3% | 3.81 | 4.38 | 22.8% | +15.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.6% | |
| X2 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.92 | 52.1% | +4.9% | |
| 12 | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -4.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hungary | 63.3% | 1.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Northern Ireland | 36.7% | 2.73 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -16.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 43.0% | 2.32 | 2.58 | 38.8% | +11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31.3% | 3.19 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -21.7% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 68.7% | 1.46 | 1.58 | 63.3% | +8.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.6% | 6.85 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -31.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +0.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.9% | 2.18 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -1.7% | |
| BTTS no | 54.1% | 1.85 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -11.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.2% | 4.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.4% | 4.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.687 × 1.58 − 1 = +0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.147 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hungary | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLW | WDWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Hungary ahead at 45%, against 26% for Northern Ireland and 28% for the draw. Standings: Hungary 2nd on 10, Northern Ireland 1st on 11.
Form
Sequence for Hungary: W W W D L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Georgia. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Northern Ireland: W D W D W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Ukraine. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Hungary 0.89 · Northern Ireland 0.80 · total 1.69. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 69%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Hungary 1–0 Northern Ireland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 28 Sep 2026Northern Ireland0–0Hungary
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Northern Ireland | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 |  Hungary | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Ukraine | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Georgia | 5 | -4 | 2 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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RomaniaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hungary v Northern Ireland probabilities?
Hungary win 45%, draw 28%, Northern Ireland win 26%.
What is the most probable score for Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Hungary 1–0 Northern Ireland is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Hungary 0.89, Northern Ireland 0.80 – over 2.5 at 31%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Hungary vs Northern Ireland?
Tuesday 17 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Puskás Aréna – UEFA Nations League.