- λ home
- 0.87
- λ away
- 1.97
- Σλ total
- 2.84
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.5%
Wales vs Portugal prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Wales 18% · draw 17% · Portugal 65%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Wales v Portugal: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Wales v Portugal are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.12 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.84 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.87, λaway = 1.97
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 15.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 63.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.5%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wales | – | 23.0% | 11.0% | 18.0% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| 2 Portugal | – | 61.0% | 71.1% | 65.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.034 → 3.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wales | 18.0% | 5.56 | 8.75 | 11.4% | +57.3% | |
| X · Draw | 16.8% | 5.96 | 5.41 | 18.5% | -9.2% | |
| 2 · Portugal | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.8% | 2.88 | 3.28 | 30.5% | +14.0% | |
| X2 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -11.4% | |
| 12 | 83.2% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wales | 21.6% | 4.63 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Portugal | 78.4% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.0% | 4.77 | 4.80 | 20.8% | +0.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -8.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | 2.45 | 40.8% | +5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.4% | 2.83 | 2.42 | 41.3% | -14.4% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 64.6% | 1.55 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +0.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -12.3% | |
| BTTS no | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -1.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 15.6% | 6.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.0% | 2.56 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.4% | 2.20 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.646 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.004 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wales | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLLD | WWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Portugal favoured on the road at 65% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Wales 3rd on 3, Portugal 1st on 12.
Form
Wales, last six: L W L L L D – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Denmark. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Portugal, last six: W W W W L W – five wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Norway. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Portugal 1–0 Wales. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wales 0.87 · Portugal 1.97 · total 2.84. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 57%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 65%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Wales 0–1 Portugal. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Sep 2026Portugal1–0Wales
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RomaniaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wales vs Portugal?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wales v Portugal probabilities?
Wales win 18%, draw 17%, Portugal win 65%.
What is the most probable score for Wales vs Portugal?
Wales 0–1 Portugal is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wales vs Portugal?
Wales 0.87, Portugal 1.97 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Wales vs Portugal?
Tuesday 17 November 2026, 20:45 WAT – UEFA Nations League.