Europe UEFA Nations League Fri 13 Nov 2026 · Hristo Botev Stadium Full time

Bulgaria

DLDLW

0–5

Half-time 0–2

Iceland

LDWWD

12%P(1)24%P(X)64%P(2)

λ home: 0.60
λ away: 1.71
Σλ total: 2.31
P(over 2.5): 44%
P(BTTS): 50%
Modal score: 0–1 17.0%

Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗

The Arena debate · settled

Bulgaria v Iceland: how the Arena called it

Full time: 0–5
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipUnder 3.5 goals✗
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

Takes

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Bulgaria v Iceland are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Statistical xG feed	2.00	45%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.57	55%
Blended total λ	2.31	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 0.60, λ_away = 1.71

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Bulgaria λ = 0.60

054.8%

133.0%

29.9%

32.0%

40.3%

5+0.0%

Iceland λ = 1.71

018.1%

131.0%

226.4%

315.1%

46.4%

5+3.0%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Bul \ Ice012345+

09.917148.23.51.6

16.0108.75.02.11.0

21.83.12.61.50.6·

3·0.60.5···

4······

5+······

Σ home-win cells: 12.7%
Σ draw cells: 23.1%
Σ away-win cells: 64.3%
Most probable score: 0–1 · 17.0%

Blending with the market

With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Bulgaria	–	7.0%	19.7%	12.4%
X Draw	–	22.0%	26.0%	23.7%
2 Iceland	–	71.0%	54.2%	63.9%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.066 → 6.6% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Bulgaria	12.4%	8.10	4.75	21.1%	-41.3%
X · Draw	23.7%	4.22	3.60	27.8%	-14.7%
2 · Iceland	63.9%	1.56	1.73	57.8%	+10.6%
Double chance
1X	36.1%	2.77	2.10	47.6%	-24.3%
X2	87.6%	1.14	1.14	87.7%	-0.1%
12	76.3%	1.31	1.28	78.1%	-2.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Bulgaria	16.2%	6.18	–	–	–
DNB Iceland	83.8%	1.19	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	69.7%	1.43	1.30	76.9%	-9.3%
Under 1.5	30.3%	3.31	3.40	29.4%	+2.9%
Over 2.5	44.0%	2.27	2.00	50.0%	-12.0%
Under 2.5	56.0%	1.79	1.80	55.6%	+0.8%
Over 3.5	23.5%	4.25	3.50	28.6%	-17.7%
Under 3.5 pick	76.5%	1.31	1.28	78.1%	-2.1%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	49.9%	2.01	1.91	52.4%	-4.8%
BTTS no	50.1%	1.99	1.80	55.6%	-9.7%
Half-time
HT 1	12.1%	8.29	–	–	–
HT X	43.8%	2.28	–	–	–
HT 2	44.2%	2.26	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickUnder 3.5 goals

Probability76.5%

Fair odds1.31

Best odds1.28

EV per unit-2.1%

EV = 0.765 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.021 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Bulgaria	Iceland
Sequence	WLDLDL	DWWDLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-2-3	2-2-2
Points per match	0.83	1.33
Goals for / match	0.83	1.17
Goals against / match	1.33	0.83
Over 2.5	50%	50%
BTTS	33%	17%
Clean sheets	33%	50%
Failed to score	50%	50%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Away favourites: Iceland 64%, Bulgaria 12%. Standings: Bulgaria 3rd on 4, Iceland 1st on 11.

Form

Bulgaria have one win from their last six (W L D L D L). Latest: 2–0 away at Luxembourg. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.

Iceland have two wins from their last six (D W W D L L). Latest: 0–0 away at Estonia. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Oct 2026): Iceland 3–0 Bulgaria. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Bulgaria 0.60 · Iceland 1.71 · total 2.31. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 50%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.31. Most probable score: Bulgaria 0–1 Iceland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.