- λ home
- 2.05
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.6%
Netherlands vs Greece prediction & xG model: Netherlands to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Netherlands v Greece: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 7–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNetherlands to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Netherlands v Greece are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.05, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 65.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.6%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Netherlands | – | 69.0% | 61.0% | 65.6% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 21.0% | 19.3% |
| 2 Greece | – | 13.0% | 18.0% | 15.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.058 → 5.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Netherlands pick | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 64.5% | +1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 19.3% | 5.19 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · Greece | 15.1% | 6.62 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -20.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.9% | 1.18 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -0.7% | |
| X2 | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -18.2% | |
| 12 | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Netherlands | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Greece | 18.7% | 5.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -8.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.4% | 5.17 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +6.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -11.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.7% | 2.66 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -17.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +1.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -10.7% | |
| BTTS no | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -3.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.8% | 6.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.656 × 1.55 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.032 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Netherlands | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDDW | DDWWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 100% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Netherlands at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Netherlands 1st on 8, Greece 2nd on 8.
Form
Netherlands have three wins from their last six (W D W D D W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Serbia. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Greece, last six: D D W W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Germany. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Greece 2–2 Netherlands. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Netherlands 2.05 · Greece 0.85 · total 2.89. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Netherlands to win, probability 66%, odds 1.55 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Netherlands 2–0 Greece. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Oct 2026Greece2–2Netherlands
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
League page →
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Switzerland0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Netherlands vs Greece?
The Model pick is Netherlands to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.55 by the bookmakers.
What are the Netherlands v Greece probabilities?
Netherlands win 66%, draw 19%, Greece win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Netherlands vs Greece?
Netherlands 2–0 Greece is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Netherlands vs Greece?
Netherlands 2.05, Greece 0.85 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Netherlands vs Greece?
Friday 13 November 2026, 20:45 WAT, at Johan Cruijff Arena – UEFA Nations League.