- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 2.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.9%
CRB vs Ceara prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: CRB 65% · draw 18% · Ceara 17%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
CRB v Ceara: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for CRB v Ceara are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.63 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.93 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 CRB | – | 64.0% | 65.7% | 64.7% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| 2 Ceara | – | 20.0% | 13.3% | 17.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · CRB | 64.7% | 1.54 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.4% | |
| X · Draw | 18.1% | 5.54 | 4.40 | 22.7% | -20.5% | |
| 2 · Ceara | 17.2% | 5.81 | 6.90 | 14.5% | +18.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -12.2% | |
| X2 | 35.3% | 2.84 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -4.8% | |
| 12 | 81.9% | 1.22 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -5.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB CRB | 79.0% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ceara | 21.0% | 4.76 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.16 | 86.2% | -10.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -7.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -9.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -3.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -15.1% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -6.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -6.5% | |
| BTTS no | 48.9% | 2.04 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -9.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.3% | 6.54 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.672 × 1.39 − 1 = -0.066 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | CRB | Ceara |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLDW | LLLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
CRB at 65%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: CRB 6th on 58, Ceara 16th on 43.
Form
CRB, last six: W L W L D W – three wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Nautico Recife. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Ceara, last six: L L L D L W – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to America Mineiro. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Ceara 0–1 CRB. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG CRB 1.95 · Ceara 0.85 · total 2.79. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.39 v fair 1.49. Most probable score: CRB 1–0 Ceara. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 22 Jul 2026Ceara0–1CRB
Serie B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Operario-PR | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 10 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 38 | +10 | 53 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Athletic Club | 38 | 0 | 48 |
| 14 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 38 | -10 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 38 | -12 | 35 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 38 | -60 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for CRB vs Ceara?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.39 by the bookmakers.
What are the CRB v Ceara probabilities?
CRB win 65%, draw 18%, Ceara win 17%.
What is the most probable score for CRB vs Ceara?
CRB 1–0 Ceara is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for CRB vs Ceara?
CRB 1.95, Ceara 0.85 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is CRB vs Ceara?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Estádio Rei Pelé – Serie B.