- λ home
- 0.75
- λ away
- 2.79
- Σλ total
- 3.55
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 0–2 11.2%
Häcken II W vs KIF Örebro W prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Häcken II W 6% · draw 15% · KIF Örebro W 78%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Häcken II W v KIF Örebro W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Häcken II W v KIF Örebro W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.42 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.65 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.55 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.75, λaway = 2.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 7.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 13.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 79.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Häcken II W | – | 8.0% | 3.7% | 6.2% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 8.9% | 15.3% |
| 2 KIF Örebro W | – | 72.0% | 87.4% | 78.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Häcken II W | 6.2% | 16.13 | 24.00 | 4.2% | +48.8% | |
| X · Draw | 15.3% | 6.52 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +53.4% | |
| 2 · KIF Örebro W | 78.5% | 1.27 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -20.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 21.5% | 4.64 | 7.10 | 14.1% | +53.0% | |
| X2 | 93.8% | 1.07 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -5.3% | |
| 12 | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -11.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Häcken II W | 7.3% | 13.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB KIF Örebro W | 92.7% | 1.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -7.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.7% | 7.85 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -4.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -6.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.0% | 2.04 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -11.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -5.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | 2.39 | 41.8% | +23.3% | |
| BTTS no | 48.4% | 2.07 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -28.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 10.0% | 10.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 30.5% | 3.28 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 59.5% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.697 × 1.28 − 1 = -0.108 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Häcken II W | KIF Örebro W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLLD | WLWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 3.67 |
| Goals against / match | 2.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
KIF Örebro W favoured on the road at 78% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Häcken II W 14th on 9, KIF Örebro W 3rd on 56.
Form
Häcken II W, last six: D L L L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Husqvarna W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for KIF Örebro W: W L W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 4–0 at home to Linköping W. 3.7 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): KIF Örebro W 3–0 Häcken II W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Häcken II W 0.75 · KIF Örebro W 2.79 · total 3.55. High total: over 2.5 70%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.28 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Häcken II W 0–3 KIF Örebro W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Jun 2026KIF Örebro W3–0Häcken II W
Elitettan table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Elfsborg W | 25 | +35 | 58 |
| 2 |  Göteborg W | 25 | +39 | 57 |
| 3 |  KIF Örebro W | 25 | +34 | 56 |
| 4 |  Umeå W | 25 | +21 | 47 |
| 5 |  Linköping W | 25 | +4 | 43 |
| 6 |  Trelleborg W | 25 | -5 | 36 |
| 7 |  Husqvarna W | 25 | -2 | 34 |
| 8 |  Jitex W | 25 | -4 | 31 |
| 9 |  Enskede W | 25 | -9 | 29 |
| 10 |  Örebro SK W | 25 | -16 | 27 |
| 11 |  Gamla Upsala W | 25 | -12 | 23 |
| 12 |  Alingsås W | 25 | -12 | 23 |
| 13 |  Sandviken W | 25 | -42 | 14 |
| 14 |  Häcken II W | 25 | -31 | 9 |
More Elitettan predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Häcken II W vs KIF Örebro W?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the Häcken II W v KIF Örebro W probabilities?
Häcken II W win 6%, draw 15%, KIF Örebro W win 78%.
What is the most probable score for Häcken II W vs KIF Örebro W?
Häcken II W 0–3 KIF Örebro W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Häcken II W vs KIF Örebro W?
Häcken II W 0.75, KIF Örebro W 2.79 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Häcken II W vs KIF Örebro W?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Elitettan.