- λ home
- 1.22
- λ away
- 2.12
- Σλ total
- 3.34
- P(over 2.5)
- 65%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.7%
Start vs Brann prediction & xG model: Brann or draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Start v Brann: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBrann or draw✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Start v Brann are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.34 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | 3.34 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.22, λaway = 2.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Start | – | 16.0% | 28.0% | 21.0% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 25.3% | 21.1% |
| 2 Brann | – | 66.0% | 46.7% | 57.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.098 → 9.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Start | 21.0% | 4.75 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -31.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.75 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -24.2% | |
| 2 · Brann | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +12.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 42.1% | 2.37 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -24.2% | |
| X2 pick | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.6% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -1.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Start | 26.7% | 3.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Brann | 73.3% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.4% | 6.50 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.8% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 36.0% | 2.78 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -11.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.3% | 4.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.0% | 2.77 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.6% | 2.29 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.790 × 1.30 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.088 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Start | Brann |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLW | LDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 58% against 21%. Standings: Start 16th on 19, Brann 7th on 33.
Form
Start, last six: L W W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–2 away at Aalesund. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Brann have three wins from their last six (L D W W D W). Latest: 1–2 at home to Lillestrom. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Brann 2–1 Start. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Start 1.22 · Brann 2.12 · total 3.34. High total: over 2.5 65%, BTTS 64%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Brann or draw, probability 79%, odds 1.30 v fair 1.27. Most probable score: Start 1–2 Brann. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Jul 2026Brann2–1Start
Eliteserien table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 26 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 26 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 |  Rosenborg | 26 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 26 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 |  Molde | 26 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 |  Tromso | 26 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 26 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 26 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 26 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 26 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 |  Ham-Kam | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 |  Fredrikstad | 26 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 26 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 26 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 26 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |  Start | 26 | -32 | 19 |
More Eliteserien predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Start vs Brann?
The Model pick is Brann or draw with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.30 by the bookmakers.
What are the Start v Brann probabilities?
Start win 21%, draw 21%, Brann win 58%.
What is the most probable score for Start vs Brann?
Start 1–2 Brann is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Start vs Brann?
Start 1.22, Brann 2.12 – over 2.5 at 65%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Start vs Brann?
Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:00 WAT – Eliteserien.