Eibar vs Cadiz Prediction, xG & Stats: Eibar to win (Spain Segunda División)
Cadiz travel to Eibar on Sunday (18:30 WAT) in the Spain Segunda División. Our Poisson model points to Eibar to win; the numbers follow.
Spain Segunda División
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Ipurua Municipal Stadium
Upcoming
- λ home
- 2.00
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.9%
Step 1 – expected goals
Two inputs drive the whole model: the expected goals (λ) for each side, combined from ratings, statistical xG and the market's goal line.
| Input | Eibar | Cadiz | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected goals λ | 2.00 | 0.82 | 2.82 |
| P(scores 0) | 13.5% | 44.0% | 6.0% (0–0) |
| P(scores 2+) | 59.4% | 19.9% | – |
Each figure follows from the Poisson formula P(k) = e−λλk/k!, so P(0) = e−λ. A total between 2.2 and 2.9 keeps the goal lines close to even.
Step 2 – the score grid
Multiplying the two goal distributions gives every exact score. The five largest cells:
| Score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Eibar 1–0 Cadiz | 11.9% | 8.4 |
| Eibar 2–0 Cadiz | 11.9% | 8.4 |
| Eibar 1–1 Cadiz | 9.8% | 10.2 |
| Eibar 2–1 Cadiz | 9.8% | 10.2 |
| Eibar 3–0 Cadiz | 7.9% | 12.6 |
Together they cover 51% of outcomes – which is why no single scoreline is ever a strong bet.
Step 3 – probabilities against the price
Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability; expected value (EV) is probability × best odds − 1. A positive EV means the price pays more than the model thinks it should.
| Market | Model p | Fair | Best odds | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 64.1% | 1.56 | 1.50 | -3.9% |
| Draw | 20.4% | 4.91 | 4.30 | -12.4% |
| Cadiz win | 15.6% | 6.43 | 5.70 | -11.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.16 | -9.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.64 | -9.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 33.6% | 2.98 | 2.52 | -15.4% |
| Both teams score | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.72 | -6.0% |
Step 4 – the selection
The model backs: Eibar to win, 64% probability, best odds 1.50 against fair odds of 1.56. EV = 0.641 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.039 – the price carries no edge, so it is a probability call rather than a value bet. Most probable scoreline: Eibar 1–0 Cadiz.
Other markets worth noting: double chance Eibar or draw at 84% and over 1.5 goals at 78%.
Context – recent form in numbers
Form is already inside the ratings, weighted by how recent each result is (120-day half-life). The raw figures for the last 6 matches:
| Last matches | Eibar | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / against per match | 1.50 / 1.33 | 1.33 / 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 · BTTS | 50% · 67% | 67% · 67% |
Eibar have two wins from their last six (W D L D L W). Latest: 3–0 away at Pamplona. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Cadiz have two wins from their last six (L L W W L L). Latest: 1–2 at home to Oviedo. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Context – table position
Eibar sit 6th on 23 points (12 played); Cadiz are 20th on 10. 13 points separate them, matching the ratings gap.
Score grid, every market and live updates: Eibar vs Cadiz match model.
Probabilities, not guarantees. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+ – keep stakes within your budget.
A model probability is a probability, not a promise. 18+ · Bet responsibly.
