- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 0.83
- Σλ total
- 2.80
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.0%
Eibar vs Cadiz prediction & xG model: Eibar to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Eibar 63% · draw 21% · Cadiz 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Eibar v Cadiz: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Eibar v Cadiz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar (home) | 1.57 | 1.13 | 1.11 | 1.98 |
| Cadiz (away) | 1.20 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.57 × 1.13 × 1.11 ≈ 1.98
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.76 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.76 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.80 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 0.83
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Eibar | 64.6% | 67.0% | 58.9% | 62.7% |
| X Draw | 21.8% | 16.0% | 22.7% | 20.8% |
| 2 Cadiz | 13.7% | 17.0% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.075 → 7.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Eibar pick | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -14.7% | |
| 2 · Cadiz | 16.4% | 6.08 | 5.05 | 19.8% | -17.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.7% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.27 | 44.1% | -15.4% | |
| 12 | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Eibar | 79.2% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cadiz | 20.8% | 4.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.31 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -8.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -4.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | 2.66 | 37.6% | -14.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -7.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.97 | 50.8% | -10.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.0% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.2% | 2.55 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.8% | 6.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.627 × 1.58 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Eibar | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLDLW | LLWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Eibar at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Eibar 6th on 23, Cadiz 20th on 10.
Form
Sequence for Eibar: W D L D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–0 away at Pamplona. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Sequence for Cadiz: L L W W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–2 at home to Oviedo. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Eibar 1.97 · Cadiz 0.83 · total 2.80. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Selection: Eibar to win, probability 63%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.59. Most probable score: Eibar 1–0 Cadiz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Almeria | 14 | +15 | 32 |
| 2 |  Castellón | 13 | +19 | 30 |
| 3 |  Girona | 14 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 |  Burgos | 14 | +3 | 24 |
| 5 |  Mallorca | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Eibar | 12 | +7 | 23 |
| 7 |  Granada CF | 12 | +6 | 23 |
| 8 |  Sporting Gijon | 14 | -1 | 23 |
| 9 |  Oviedo | 14 | +2 | 21 |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 14 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 13 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |  Valladolid | 14 | +1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Sabadell | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 14 |  Tenerife | 12 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 |  Leganes | 14 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  Eldense | 13 | -6 | 14 |
| 17 |  Celta de Vigo II | 13 | -6 | 13 |
| 18 |  Real Sociedad II | 14 | -7 | 13 |
| 19 |  FC Andorra | 13 | -6 | 11 |
| 20 |  Cadiz | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 |  Albacete | 13 | -11 | 10 |
| 22 |  AD Ceuta FC | 13 | -20 | 5 |
More Segunda División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Eibar vs Cadiz?
The Model pick is Eibar to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Eibar v Cadiz probabilities?
Eibar win 63%, draw 21%, Cadiz win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Eibar vs Cadiz?
Eibar 1–0 Cadiz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Eibar vs Cadiz?
Eibar 1.97, Cadiz 0.83 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Eibar vs Cadiz?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:30 WAT, at Ipurua Municipal Stadium – Segunda División.