- λ home
- 2.05
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.94
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.1%
Mamelodi Sundowns W vs FAR Rabat W prediction & xG model: Mamelodi Sundowns W to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Mamelodi Sundowns W 64% · draw 20% · FAR Rabat W 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Mamelodi Sundowns W v FAR Rabat W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Mamelodi Sundowns W v FAR Rabat W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.79 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.94 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.05, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mamelodi Sundowns W | – | 69.0% | 57.9% | 64.3% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 23.6% | 20.3% |
| 2 FAR Rabat W | – | 13.0% | 18.6% | 15.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mamelodi Sundowns W pick | 64.3% | 1.55 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -0.9% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.92 | 3.78 | 26.5% | -23.1% | |
| 2 · FAR Rabat W | 15.3% | 6.52 | 4.80 | 20.8% | -26.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.7% | 1.18 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -6.9% | |
| X2 | 35.7% | 2.80 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -24.4% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -6.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mamelodi Sundowns W | 80.7% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| DNB FAR Rabat W | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -6.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.0% | 4.34 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -17.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -5.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 1.94 | 51.5% | -11.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -6.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -10.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | 1.76 | 56.8% | -3.2% | |
| BTTS no | 45.0% | 2.22 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -15.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 46.6% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.4% | 6.49 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.643 × 1.54 − 1 = -0.009 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mamelodi Sundowns W | FAR Rabat W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWD | WWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 2.75 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 75% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Mamelodi Sundowns W at 64%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Mamelodi Sundowns W, last six: W W W D W D – four wins in total. Latest: 4–1 at home to Kawempe Muslim W. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
FAR Rabat W have three wins from their last four (W W W L). Latest: 1–0 at home to Lekie W. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mamelodi Sundowns W 2.05 · FAR Rabat W 0.89 · total 2.94. High total: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Mamelodi Sundowns W to win, probability 64%, odds 1.54 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Mamelodi Sundowns W 2–0 FAR Rabat W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns W vs FAR Rabat W?
The Model pick is Mamelodi Sundowns W to win with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.54 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mamelodi Sundowns W v FAR Rabat W probabilities?
Mamelodi Sundowns W win 64%, draw 20%, FAR Rabat W win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Mamelodi Sundowns W vs FAR Rabat W?
Mamelodi Sundowns W 2–0 FAR Rabat W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mamelodi Sundowns W vs FAR Rabat W?
Mamelodi Sundowns W 2.05, FAR Rabat W 0.89 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Mamelodi Sundowns W vs FAR Rabat W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Suez Canal Stadium – CAF Women's Champions League.