- λ home
- 2.28
- λ away
- 1.10
- Σλ total
- 3.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 75%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.7%
FC Krasnodar vs Druzhba prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Krasnodar v Druzhba: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for FC Krasnodar v Druzhba are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Krasnodar (home) | 1.66 | 1.25 | 0.80 | 1.66 |
| Druzhba (away) | 1.38 | 0.92 | 0.85 | 1.08 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.25 × 0.80 ≈ 1.66
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.73 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 4.59 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.28, λaway = 1.10
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 63.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.0%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Krasnodar | 50.0% | 74.0% | 93.1% | 73.7% |
| X Draw | 25.6% | 19.0% | 4.4% | 15.2% |
| 2 Druzhba | 24.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 11.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.043 → 4.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Krasnodar | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -24.1% | |
| X · Draw | 15.2% | 6.60 | 22.00 | 4.5% | +233.5% | |
| 2 · Druzhba | 11.2% | 8.97 | 38.00 | 2.6% | +323.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.8% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 15.00 | 6.7% | +294.6% | |
| 12 | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.01 | 99.0% | -14.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Krasnodar | 86.9% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Druzhba | 13.1% | 7.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.1% | 1.15 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -10.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.9% | 7.75 | 8.45 | 11.8% | +9.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -17.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | 3.94 | 5.65 | 17.7% | +43.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -23.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 3.18 | 31.4% | +36.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.94 | 51.5% | +9.6% | |
| BTTS no | 43.5% | 2.30 | 1.77 | 56.5% | -23.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 47.6% | 2.10 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.4% | 5.74 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.565 × 1.94 − 1 = +0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.102 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Krasnodar | Druzhba |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDDL | WWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 83% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – FC Krasnodar 74% to win.
Form
FC Krasnodar have two wins from their last six (W L W D D L). Latest: 4–2 at home to CSKA Moscow. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Druzhba: W W W D W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Pobeda. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Krasnodar 2.28 · Druzhba 1.10 · total 3.38. Goals expected – 75% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 57%, odds 1.94 v fair 1.77. Most probable score: FC Krasnodar 2–1 Druzhba. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Trabzonspor0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Krasnodar vs Druzhba?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.94 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Krasnodar v Druzhba probabilities?
FC Krasnodar win 74%, draw 15%, Druzhba win 11%.
What is the most probable score for FC Krasnodar vs Druzhba?
FC Krasnodar 2–1 Druzhba is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Krasnodar vs Druzhba?
FC Krasnodar 2.28, Druzhba 1.10 – over 2.5 at 75%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is FC Krasnodar vs Druzhba?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.