- λ home
- 1.94
- λ away
- 1.29
- Σλ total
- 3.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.9%
Mineros Potosi vs San Martin de Yacuiba prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Mineros Potosi 57% · draw 23% · San Martin de Yacuiba 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Mineros Potosi v San Martin de Yacuiba: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Mineros Potosi v San Martin de Yacuiba are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineros Potosi (home) | 2.07 | 1.17 | 0.71 | 1.72 |
| San Martin de Yacuiba (away) | 1.31 | 1.08 | 0.93 | 1.32 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.07 × 1.17 × 0.71 ≈ 1.72
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.04 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.36 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.41 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.94, λaway = 1.29
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 52.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 25.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mineros Potosi | 46.0% | 62.0% | 63.0% | 56.9% |
| X Draw | 24.7% | 23.0% | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| 2 San Martin de Yacuiba | 29.3% | 15.0% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mineros Potosi | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -19.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -2.1% | |
| 2 · San Martin de Yacuiba | 20.5% | 4.88 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +12.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -12.6% | |
| X2 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.60 | 38.5% | +12.1% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -11.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mineros Potosi | 73.5% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB San Martin de Yacuiba | 26.5% | 3.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 5.98 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -9.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | 2.81 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -2.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40.4% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.58 | 63.3% | -1.1% | |
| BTTS no | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.9% | 4.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.626 × 1.58 − 1 = -0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mineros Potosi | San Martin de Yacuiba |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWLD | WWLWW |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-2 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / match | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% |
| BTTS | 80% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Mineros Potosi ahead at 57%, against 21% for San Martin de Yacuiba and 23% for the draw. Standings: Mineros Potosi 2nd on 10, San Martin de Yacuiba 4th on 9.
Form
Mineros Potosi have two wins from their last five (W L W L D). Latest: 4–1 at home to Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz. Scoring rate: 2.4 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
San Martin de Yacuiba have four wins from their last five (W W L W W). Latest: 4–0 at home to Municipal Tiquipaya. 2.0 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mineros Potosi 1.94 · San Martin de Yacuiba 1.29 · total 3.23. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.58 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Mineros Potosi 2–1 San Martin de Yacuiba. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Nacional B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  EM Huanuni | 6 | +9 | 14 |
| 2 |  Deportivo FATIC | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 |  Atletico Sucre | 6 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Libertad | 6 | -22 | 1 |
| 1 |  26 de Febrero | 6 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |  Chaco | 6 | +4 | 9 |
| 3 |  Hiska Nacional | 6 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 |  Ingenieros | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 |  Independiente CBBA | 6 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 |  Mineros Potosi | 6 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 |  Wilstermann Cooperativa | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Atletico Juniors | 6 | -21 | 0 |
| 1 |  Virginia | 6 | +7 | 14 |
| 2 |  Municipal Tiquipaya | 6 | +11 | 11 |
| 3 |  San Martin de Yacuiba | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 4 |  Universitario Beni | 6 | -16 | 0 |
| 1 |  CD IN San Juan FC | 6 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Tigres | 6 | +4 | 8 |
| 3 |  Club Universitario | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 |  Universitario Tarija | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 1 |  Primero Mayo | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 |  Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz | 6 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 |  Unión Tarija | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 |  CD Guadalajara | 6 | -6 | 2 |
| 1 | Wilstermann Cooperativa | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Sucre | 6 | +7 | 9 |
| 3 | Unión Tarija | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | San Martin de Yacuiba | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 5 | Club Universitario | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Hiska Nacional | 6 | -5 | 7 |
More Nacional B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mineros Potosi vs San Martin de Yacuiba?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.58 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mineros Potosi v San Martin de Yacuiba probabilities?
Mineros Potosi win 57%, draw 23%, San Martin de Yacuiba win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Mineros Potosi vs San Martin de Yacuiba?
Mineros Potosi 2–1 San Martin de Yacuiba is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mineros Potosi vs San Martin de Yacuiba?
Mineros Potosi 1.94, San Martin de Yacuiba 1.29 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Mineros Potosi vs San Martin de Yacuiba?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 20:00 WAT – Nacional B.