- λ home
- 1.13
- λ away
- 1.96
- Σλ total
- 3.09
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Valmiera BSS vs Tukums prediction & xG model: Tukums to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Valmiera BSS 22% · draw 21% · Tukums 57%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Valmiera BSS v Tukums: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Valmiera BSS v Tukums are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.17 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.09 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.13, λaway = 1.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 21.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Valmiera BSS | – | 17.0% | 29.0% | 22.0% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 25.0% | 20.9% |
| 2 Tukums | – | 65.0% | 46.1% | 57.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Valmiera BSS | 22.0% | 4.54 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -31.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -24.7% | |
| 2 · Tukums pick | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +11.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.0% | 2.33 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -27.0% | |
| X2 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -0.2% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Valmiera BSS | 27.9% | 3.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tukums | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.4% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 18.6% | 5.37 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -4.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -7.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -9.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -8.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.0% | 4.99 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.570 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.112 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.118 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Valmiera BSS | Tukums |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWDDL | LLDLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 22%.
Form
Valmiera BSS have two wins from their last six (W D W D D L). Latest: 3–2 at home to Skanste. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Tukums, last six: L L D L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Auda. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.3 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Valmiera BSS 1.13 · Tukums 1.96 · total 3.09. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Tukums to win, probability 57%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Valmiera BSS 1–2 Tukums. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Virsliga table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rīgas FS | 35 | +63 | 89 |
| 2 |  Riga | 35 | +62 | 83 |
| 3 |  Auda | 36 | +24 | 73 |
| 4 |  BFC Daugavpils | 36 | +5 | 52 |
| 5 |  FK Liepaja | 36 | +1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Super Nova | 36 | -18 | 40 |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 36 | -20 | 35 |
| 8 |  Grobiņa | 36 | -38 | 29 |
| 9 |  Tukums | 36 | -24 | 25 |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 36 | -55 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Valmiera BSS vs Tukums?
The Model pick is Tukums to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Valmiera BSS v Tukums probabilities?
Valmiera BSS win 22%, draw 21%, Tukums win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Valmiera BSS vs Tukums?
Valmiera BSS 1–2 Tukums is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Valmiera BSS vs Tukums?
Valmiera BSS 1.13, Tukums 1.96 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Valmiera BSS vs Tukums?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 12:00 WAT, at Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs – Virsliga.