- λ home
- 1.92
- λ away
- 0.52
- Σλ total
- 2.44
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.7%
América PE vs Vera Cruz prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
América PE v Vera Cruz: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for América PE v Vera Cruz are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (6 and 6 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| América PE (home) | 1.32 | 1.42 | 0.85 | 1.59 |
| Vera Cruz (away) | 1.12 | 0.82 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.32 × 1.42 × 0.85 ≈ 1.59
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.17 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.09 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.44 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.92, λaway = 0.52
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 70.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 América PE | 61.0% | 73.0% | 70.2% | 71.8% |
| X Draw | 26.0% | 16.0% | 20.8% | 18.0% |
| 2 Vera Cruz | 13.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · América PE | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -8.0% | |
| X · Draw | 18.0% | 5.56 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -22.1% | |
| 2 · Vera Cruz | 10.2% | 9.85 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +1.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 89.8% | 1.11 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -7.5% | |
| X2 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -9.9% | |
| 12 | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -6.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB América PE | 87.6% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vera Cruz | 12.4% | 8.07 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -9.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +3.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.7% | 2.10 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -11.8% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +2.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.0% | 3.85 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -15.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -1.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +7.8% | |
| BTTS no | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -16.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 9.7% | 10.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.523 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.021 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.022 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | América PE | Vera Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWD | LLDDW |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-0 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals against / match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 0% |
| BTTS | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
América PE at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
América PE, last five: D W W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Ipojuca. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Vera Cruz, last five: L L D D W – one win in total. Latest: 0–1 at home to Guarany de Sobral. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): América PE 1–0 Vera Cruz. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG América PE 1.92 · Vera Cruz 0.52 · total 2.44. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 52%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: América PE 1–0 Vera Cruz. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Nov 2026América PE1–0Vera Cruz
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for América PE vs Vera Cruz?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 52, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the América PE v Vera Cruz probabilities?
América PE win 72%, draw 18%, Vera Cruz win 10%.
What is the most probable score for América PE vs Vera Cruz?
América PE 1–0 Vera Cruz is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for América PE vs Vera Cruz?
América PE 1.92, Vera Cruz 0.52 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is América PE vs Vera Cruz?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT – Pernambucano 1.