- λ home
- 0.95
- λ away
- 1.74
- Σλ total
- 2.69
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–1 11.8%
Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion prediction & xG model: Libertad Asuncion to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo Recoleta v Libertad Asuncion: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipLibertad Asuncion to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Deportivo Recoleta v Libertad Asuncion are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (42 and 44 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta (home) | 1.66 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| Libertad Asuncion (away) | 1.38 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 1.44 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.98 × 0.82 ≈ 1.34
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.78 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.70 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.69 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.95, λaway = 1.74
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 55.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Recoleta | 34.3% | 19.0% | 25.4% | 21.7% |
| X Draw | 26.5% | 17.0% | 27.3% | 21.3% |
| 2 Libertad Asuncion | 39.2% | 64.0% | 47.3% | 57.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Recoleta | 21.7% | 4.61 | 3.52 | 28.4% | -23.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -30.1% | |
| 2 · Libertad Asuncion pick | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.89 | 52.9% | +7.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 43.0% | 2.33 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -26.9% | |
| X2 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -6.0% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -2.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Recoleta | 27.6% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Libertad Asuncion | 72.4% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.9% | 1.35 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -8.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -12.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -8.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | 2.02 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -7.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.37 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -13.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.69 | 59.2% | +0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 40.4% | 2.47 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -19.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.4% | 5.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.3% | 2.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.570 × 1.89 − 1 = +0.077 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.087 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Recoleta | Libertad Asuncion |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWDWL | LWWLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 57% against 22%.
Form
Deportivo Recoleta have three wins from their last six (L W W D W L). Latest: 1–4 away at Olimpia. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Libertad Asuncion have three wins from their last six (L W W L D W). Latest: 1–2 away at Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Deportivo Recoleta 0, Libertad Asuncion 3, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 Libertad Asuncion. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Recoleta 0.95 · Libertad Asuncion 1.74 · total 2.69. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Libertad Asuncion to win, probability 57%, odds 1.89 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Libertad Asuncion. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 5 Oct 2026Deportivo Recoleta1–2Libertad Asuncion
- 30 Jul 2026Libertad Asuncion4–1Deportivo Recoleta
- 31 Mar 2026Libertad Asuncion1–0Deportivo Recoleta
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?
The Model pick is Libertad Asuncion to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.89 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Recoleta v Libertad Asuncion probabilities?
Deportivo Recoleta win 22%, draw 21%, Libertad Asuncion win 57%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?
Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Libertad Asuncion is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?
Deportivo Recoleta 0.95, Libertad Asuncion 1.74 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 22:00 WAT – Copa Paraguay.