- λ home
- 1.78
- λ away
- 1.50
- Σλ total
- 3.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Charlotte Independence vs Boise prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Charlotte Independence v Boise: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Charlotte Independence v Boise are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 33 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Independence (home) | 1.74 | 1.48 | 0.78 | 1.99 |
| Boise (away) | 1.28 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.27 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.74 × 1.48 × 0.78 ≈ 1.99
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.26 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.29 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.78, λaway = 1.50
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Charlotte Independence | 53.6% | 51.0% | 38.1% | 43.7% |
| X Draw | 22.6% | 11.0% | 24.6% | 21.1% |
| 2 Boise | 23.8% | 38.0% | 37.3% | 35.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Charlotte Independence | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.34 | 42.7% | +2.3% | |
| X · Draw | 21.1% | 4.73 | 3.62 | 27.6% | -23.4% | |
| 2 · Boise | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.39 | 41.8% | -16.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -19.0% | |
| 12 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Charlotte Independence | 55.5% | 1.80 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Boise | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.09 | 91.7% | -9.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.7% | 6.00 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.49 | 40.2% | -9.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.12 | 47.2% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -6.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -18.9% | |
| BTTS no | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.63 | 38.0% | +9.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.0% | 2.86 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.5% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.636 × 1.42 − 1 = -0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Charlotte Independence | Boise |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWW | DWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Charlotte Independence ahead at 44%, against 35% for Boise and 21% for the draw. Standings: Charlotte Independence 1st on 66, Boise 3rd on 58.
Form
Sequence for Charlotte Independence: W W L W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Forward Madison. Scoring rate: 2.8 per match – well above average.
Boise have five wins from their last six (D W W W W W). Latest: 0–0 at home to Chattanooga Red Wolves. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Charlotte Independence 1, Boise 0, drawn 1, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Boise 1–1 Charlotte Independence. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Charlotte Independence 1.78 · Boise 1.50 · total 3.28. Goals expected – 64% for over 2.5 and 58% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.42 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Charlotte Independence 2–1 Boise. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 Sep 2026Boise1–1Charlotte Independence
- 7 May 2026Charlotte Independence1–0Boise
USL League One table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Charlotte Independence | 32 | +28 | 66 |
| 2 |  Union Omaha | 32 | +20 | 62 |
| 3 |  Boise | 32 | +10 | 58 |
| 4 |  Forward Madison | 32 | +24 | 56 |
| 5 |  Spokane Velocity | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 6 |  One Knoxville | 32 | +16 | 54 |
| 7 |  Chattanooga Red Wolves | 32 | +6 | 47 |
| 8 |  Naples | 32 | -7 | 46 |
| 9 |  Fort Wayne | 32 | +5 | 45 |
| 10 |  Westchester SC | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 |  Sarasota Paradise | 32 | -2 | 40 |
| 12 |  Corpus Christi | 32 | -15 | 37 |
| 13 |  Alta | 32 | -8 | 34 |
| 14 |  Portland Hearts of Pine | 32 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 |  Greenville Triumph | 32 | -23 | 30 |
| 16 |  NY Cosmos | 32 | -26 | 27 |
| 17 |  Richmond Kickers | 32 | -28 | 26 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Charlotte Independence vs Boise?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.42 by the bookmakers.
What are the Charlotte Independence v Boise probabilities?
Charlotte Independence win 44%, draw 21%, Boise win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Charlotte Independence vs Boise?
Charlotte Independence 2–1 Boise is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Charlotte Independence vs Boise?
Charlotte Independence 1.78, Boise 1.50 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Charlotte Independence vs Boise?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Sportsplex at Matthews – USL League One.