- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 1.12
- Σλ total
- 2.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 44%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
NJNY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: NJNY Gotham FC W 40% · draw 28% · Kansas City W 33%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
NJNY Gotham FC W v Kansas City W: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for NJNY Gotham FC W v Kansas City W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJNY Gotham FC W (home) | 1.55 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 1.23 |
| Kansas City W (away) | 1.31 | 1.25 | 0.65 | 1.06 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.55 × 0.96 × 0.83 ≈ 1.23
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.29 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.53 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.49 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 1.12
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 32.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 NJNY Gotham FC W | 39.1% | 43.0% | 38.7% | 39.8% |
| X Draw | 29.8% | 19.0% | 30.7% | 27.7% |
| 2 Kansas City W | 31.1% | 38.0% | 30.7% | 32.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · NJNY Gotham FC W | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -8.4% | |
| X · Draw | 27.7% | 3.62 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -19.8% | |
| 2 · Kansas City W | 32.5% | 3.07 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -5.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 67.5% | 1.48 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -8.2% | |
| X2 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.7% | |
| 12 | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB NJNY Gotham FC W | 55.0% | 1.82 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kansas City W | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -3.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -7.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.6% | 4.07 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -14.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -2.0% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -16.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.8% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.0% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.1% | 3.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.560 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.020 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | NJNY Gotham FC W | Kansas City W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLDW | DWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 5-1-0 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 2.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
NJNY Gotham FC W ahead at 40%, against 33% for Kansas City W and 28% for the draw. Standings: NJNY Gotham FC W 1st on 61, Kansas City W 4th on 53.
Form
Sequence for NJNY Gotham FC W: W W W L D W, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Seattle Reign FC W. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Sequence for Kansas City W: D W W W W W, so five victories in six. Latest: 0–0 at home to Angel City W. Scoring rate: 2.5 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: NJNY Gotham FC W 2, Kansas City W 0, drawn 0, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Aug 2026): NJNY Gotham FC W 2–1 Kansas City W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG NJNY Gotham FC W 1.29 · Kansas City W 1.12 · total 2.41. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 44%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 56%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.79. Most probable score: NJNY Gotham FC W 2–1 Kansas City W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 15 Aug 2026NJNY Gotham FC W2–1Kansas City W
- 27 Jun 2026NJNY Gotham FC W2–0Kansas City W
NWSL Women table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 30 | +16 | 61 |
| 2 |  San Diego Wave W | 30 | +14 | 58 |
| 3 |  Washington Spirit W | 30 | +15 | 55 |
| 4 |  Kansas City W | 30 | +15 | 53 |
| 5 |  Angel City W | 30 | +22 | 52 |
| 6 |  Portland Thorns W | 30 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 |  Utah Royals W | 30 | +5 | 47 |
| 8 |  Seattle Reign FC W | 30 | +4 | 47 |
| 9 |  North Carolina Courage W | 30 | +10 | 45 |
| 10 |  Denver Summit W | 30 | +11 | 41 |
| 11 |  Orlando Pride W | 30 | -8 | 36 |
| 12 |  Houston Dash W | 30 | -6 | 33 |
| 13 |  Boston Legacy W | 30 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 |  Bay FC W | 30 | -17 | 27 |
| 15 |  Racing Louisville W | 30 | -24 | 24 |
| 16 |  Chicago Red Stars W | 30 | -54 | 17 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for NJNY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 56, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the NJNY Gotham FC W v Kansas City W probabilities?
NJNY Gotham FC W win 40%, draw 28%, Kansas City W win 33%.
What is the most probable score for NJNY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W?
NJNY Gotham FC W 2–1 Kansas City W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for NJNY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W?
NJNY Gotham FC W 1.29, Kansas City W 1.12 – over 2.5 at 44%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is NJNY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Sports Illustrated Stadium – NWSL Women.