- λ home
- 2.08
- λ away
- 1.45
- Σλ total
- 3.53
- P(over 2.5)
- 68%
- P(BTTS)
- 69%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.2%
FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: FC Dallas 55% · draw 19% · Portland Timbers 26%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for FC Dallas v Portland Timbers are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (34 and 29 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas (home) | 1.83 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 2.07 |
| Portland Timbers (away) | 1.44 | 1.14 | 0.94 | 1.54 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.83 × 1.07 × 1.06 ≈ 2.07
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.61 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.47 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.53 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.08, λaway = 1.45
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 52.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Dallas | 49.5% | 74.0% | 49.6% | 55.2% |
| X Draw | 22.0% | 7.0% | 23.5% | 19.2% |
| 2 Portland Timbers | 28.6% | 19.0% | 26.9% | 25.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.062 → 6.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Dallas | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +4.9% | |
| X · Draw | 19.2% | 5.22 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -23.3% | |
| 2 · Portland Timbers | 25.6% | 3.90 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -10.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.8% | |
| X2 | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -14.4% | |
| 12 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Dallas | 68.3% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Portland Timbers | 31.7% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -4.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.9% | 7.18 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -9.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -7.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -7.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 68.8% | 1.45 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 31.2% | 3.20 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -14.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.2% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.4% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.4% | 4.11 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.688 × 1.40 − 1 = -0.037 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Dallas | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWDW | WWWWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Dallas ahead at 55%, against 26% for Portland Timbers and 19% for the draw. Standings: FC Dallas 2nd on 58, Portland Timbers 7th on 46.
Form
FC Dallas, last six: W D L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Colorado Rapids. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Portland Timbers have four wins from their last six (W W W W D L). Latest: 2–0 away at Austin. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: FC Dallas 1, Portland Timbers 0, drawn 1, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Dallas 2.08 · Portland Timbers 1.45 · total 3.53. Goals expected – 68% for over 2.5 and 69% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 69%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.45. Most probable score: FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Sep 2026FC Dallas2–1Portland Timbers
- 23 Jul 2026Portland Timbers2–2FC Dallas
Major League Soccer table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | +40 | 64 |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 34 | +11 | 58 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 34 | +11 | 54 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | +6 | 52 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 34 | 0 | 51 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 34 | +12 | 47 |
| 7 |  Portland Timbers | 34 | +1 | 46 |
| 8 |  Seattle Sounders | 34 | -2 | 46 |
| 9 |  Real Salt Lake | 34 | +1 | 45 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United FC | 34 | -2 | 44 |
| 11 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | -7 | 44 |
| 12 |  Colorado Rapids | 34 | -3 | 43 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 34 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Austin | 34 | -23 | 34 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 34 | -41 | 26 |
More Major League Soccer predictions
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Philadelphia UnionFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Dallas v Portland Timbers probabilities?
FC Dallas win 55%, draw 19%, Portland Timbers win 26%.
What is the most probable score for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
FC Dallas 2–1 Portland Timbers is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
FC Dallas 2.08, Portland Timbers 1.45 – over 2.5 at 68%, BTTS at 69%.
What time is FC Dallas vs Portland Timbers?
Saturday 21 November 2026, 22:00 WAT, at Toyota Stadium – Major League Soccer.