- λ home
- 1.05
- λ away
- 0.94
- Σλ total
- 1.99
- P(over 2.5)
- 34%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.3%
AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
AS Gabes v Sporting Ben Arous: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for AS Gabes v Sporting Ben Arous are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 14 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Gabes (home) | 1.32 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Sporting Ben Arous (away) | 0.82 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 0.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.32 × 0.82 × 0.77 ≈ 0.83
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.61 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.79 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.15 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.99 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.05, λaway = 0.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AS Gabes | 32.7% | 40.0% | 41.2% | 40.5% |
| X Draw | 37.0% | 19.0% | 31.9% | 24.4% |
| 2 Sporting Ben Arous | 30.3% | 41.0% | 26.8% | 35.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AS Gabes | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.16 | 46.3% | -12.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.09 | 2.79 | 35.8% | -31.8% | |
| 2 · Sporting Ben Arous | 35.0% | 2.85 | 3.32 | 30.1% | +16.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -20.8% | |
| X2 | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.52 | 65.8% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -0.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AS Gabes | 53.6% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sporting Ben Arous | 46.4% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -11.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 39.9% | 2.51 | 2.33 | 42.9% | -7.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34.2% | 2.93 | 2.52 | 39.7% | -13.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -5.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.6% | 6.04 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -21.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -6.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.7% | 1.93 | 2.09 | 47.8% | +8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 48.3% | 2.07 | 1.61 | 62.1% | -22.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.6% | 3.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 23.4% | 4.28 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.517 × 2.09 − 1 = +0.080 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.074 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AS Gabes | Sporting Ben Arous |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLLDL | DWDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – AS Gabes 41%, draw 24%, Sporting Ben Arous 35%. Standings: AS Gabes 26th on 5, Sporting Ben Arous 16th on 9.
Form
Sequence for AS Gabes: D L L L D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to AS Soliman. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Sequence for Sporting Ben Arous: D W D D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Sfax Railways. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AS Gabes 1.05 · Sporting Ben Arous 0.94 · total 1.99. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.09 v fair 1.93. Most probable score: AS Gabes 2–1 Sporting Ben Arous. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 2 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Kasserine | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 |  EM Mahdia | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 3 |  CS Chebba | 8 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |  AS Soliman | 8 | +6 | 15 |
| 5 |  Ksour Essef | 6 | +6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Mégrine | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 7 |  M'saken | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 |  Bouchamma | 7 | -2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Korba | 7 | +4 | 12 |
| 10 |  Jendouba Sport | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 11 |  Stade Soussien | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Sfax Railways | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 13 |  JS Kairouanaise | 7 | +1 | 11 |
| 14 |  US Tataouine | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Kalaâ Sport | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 16 |  Sporting Ben Arous | 8 | +1 | 9 |
| 17 |  Ariana | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 18 |  Stade Gabesien | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 19 |  BS Bouhajla | 8 | -6 | 8 |
| 20 |  EGS Gafsa | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 |  AS Agareb | 8 | -7 | 7 |
| 22 |  Redeyef | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 23 |  Kerkennah | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 24 |  Béni-Khalled | 8 | -4 | 6 |
| 25 |  Olympique du Kef | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 26 |  AS Gabes | 8 | -4 | 5 |
| 27 |  CO Medenine | 7 | -7 | 5 |
| 28 |  Moknine | 7 | -9 | 2 |
More Ligue 2 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.09 by the bookmakers.
What are the AS Gabes v Sporting Ben Arous probabilities?
AS Gabes win 41%, draw 24%, Sporting Ben Arous win 35%.
What is the most probable score for AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous?
AS Gabes 2–1 Sporting Ben Arous is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous?
AS Gabes 1.05, Sporting Ben Arous 0.94 – over 2.5 at 34%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is AS Gabes vs Sporting Ben Arous?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Gabes Municipal Stadium – Ligue 2.