- λ home
- 1.41
- λ away
- 2.26
- Σλ total
- 3.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.2%
Pumas UNAM W vs Tigres UANL W prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Pumas UNAM W v Tigres UANL W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–3
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Pumas UNAM W v Tigres UANL W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM W (home) | 1.87 | 0.94 | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| Tigres UANL W (away) | 1.61 | 1.67 | 1.04 | 2.78 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.87 × 0.94 × 0.63 ≈ 1.10
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.88 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.82 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.55 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.41, λaway = 2.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 23.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 56.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Pumas UNAM W | 12.3% | 24.0% | 27.1% | 25.3% |
| X Draw | 15.8% | 12.0% | 21.8% | 16.1% |
| 2 Tigres UANL W | 71.9% | 64.0% | 51.1% | 58.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Pumas UNAM W | 25.3% | 3.95 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -16.5% | |
| X · Draw | 16.1% | 6.20 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -33.9% | |
| 2 · Tigres UANL W | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +2.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 41.4% | 2.41 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -24.2% | |
| X2 | 74.7% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.4% | |
| 12 | 83.9% | 1.19 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -1.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Pumas UNAM W | 30.2% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tigres UANL W | 69.8% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -4.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.2% | 7.59 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -14.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 69.9% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -4.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 30.1% | 3.32 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -9.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -8.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -8.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 65.3% | 1.53 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -8.5% | |
| BTTS no | 34.7% | 2.88 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -4.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.3% | 4.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.2% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.699 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Pumas UNAM W | Tigres UANL W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWLD | WWDWWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 4-2-0 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 3.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 59% against 25%. Standings: Pumas UNAM W 9th on 20, Tigres UANL W 3rd on 35.
Form
Pumas UNAM W have two wins from their last six (W L D W L D). Latest: 3–1 at home to Atlético San Luis W. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Tigres UANL W, last six: W W D W W D – four wins in total. Latest: 4–0 away at Atlante W. Scoring rate: 3.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Pumas UNAM W 0, Tigres UANL W 2, drawn 0, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Oct 2026): Pumas UNAM W 1–3 Tigres UANL W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Pumas UNAM W 1.41 · Tigres UANL W 2.26 · total 3.67. High total: over 2.5 70%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 70%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.43. Most probable score: Pumas UNAM W 1–2 Tigres UANL W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 Oct 2026Pumas UNAM W1–3Tigres UANL W
- 21 Feb 2026Pumas UNAM W0–2Tigres UANL W
Liga MX Femenil table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  América W | 14 | +50 | 37 |
| 2 |  Monterrey W | 14 | +34 | 37 |
| 3 |  Tigres UANL W | 14 | +35 | 35 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara W | 14 | +17 | 30 |
| 5 |  Juárez W | 14 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Toluca W | 14 | +9 | 27 |
| 7 |  León W | 14 | +3 | 25 |
| 8 |  Santos Laguna W | 14 | -4 | 22 |
| 9 |  Pumas UNAM W | 14 | -2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Pachuca W | 14 | +9 | 19 |
| 11 |  Atlético San Luis W | 14 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 |  Cruz Azul W | 14 | -9 | 18 |
| 13 |  Atlas W | 14 | -14 | 17 |
| 14 |  Tijuana W | 14 | -15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Querétaro W | 14 | -20 | 7 |
| 16 |  Atlante W | 14 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 |  Puebla W | 14 | -29 | 4 |
| 18 |  Necaxa W | 14 | -49 | 1 |
More Liga MX Femenil predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Pumas UNAM W vs Tigres UANL W?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 70, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Pumas UNAM W v Tigres UANL W probabilities?
Pumas UNAM W win 25%, draw 16%, Tigres UANL W win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Pumas UNAM W vs Tigres UANL W?
Pumas UNAM W 1–2 Tigres UANL W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Pumas UNAM W vs Tigres UANL W?
Pumas UNAM W 1.41, Tigres UANL W 2.26 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is Pumas UNAM W vs Tigres UANL W?
Wednesday 11 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – Liga MX Femenil.