- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 3.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 60%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.2%
Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Real Potosí v Nacional Potosí: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 5–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Real Potosí v Nacional Potosí are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Potosí (home) | 2.25 | 1.21 | 0.92 | 2.50 |
| Nacional Potosí (away) | 1.27 | 1.64 | 0.95 | 1.96 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 2.25 × 1.21 × 0.92 ≈ 2.50
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.46 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.65 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.94 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Potosí | 50.0% | 42.0% | 40.9% | 41.5% |
| X Draw | 19.5% | 17.0% | 26.4% | 21.0% |
| 2 Nacional Potosí | 30.6% | 41.0% | 32.7% | 37.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Potosí | 41.5% | 2.41 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -8.6% | |
| X · Draw | 21.0% | 4.77 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -28.7% | |
| 2 · Nacional Potosí | 37.5% | 2.67 | 2.75 | 36.4% | +3.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.5% | 1.60 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -10.0% | |
| X2 | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -12.3% | |
| 12 | 79.0% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Potosí | 52.5% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Nacional Potosí | 47.5% | 2.11 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -2.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.0% | 5.26 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -17.7% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -0.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -13.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +0.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -3.4% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -12.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 32.4% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.7% | 2.65 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.9% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.598 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Potosí | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLDLWW | DWDWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Real Potosí 42%, draw 21%, Nacional Potosí 38%.
Form
Real Potosí have two wins from their last six (D L D L W W). Latest: 1–1 away at Nacional Potosí. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Nacional Potosí: D W D W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Real Potosí. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Previous 4: Real Potosí 1, Nacional Potosí 0, drawn 3, 2.3 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Nacional Potosí 1–1 Real Potosí. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Potosí 1.68 · Nacional Potosí 1.58 · total 3.26. Goals expected – 60% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Real Potosí 2–1 Nacional Potosí. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Nov 2026Nacional Potosí1–1Real Potosí
- 23 Sep 2026Nacional Potosí0–1Real Potosí
- 20 Sep 2026Real Potosí2–2Nacional Potosí
- 12 Jul 2026Real Potosí1–1Nacional Potosí
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Potosí v Nacional Potosí probabilities?
Real Potosí win 42%, draw 21%, Nacional Potosí win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí?
Real Potosí 2–1 Nacional Potosí is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí?
Real Potosí 1.68, Nacional Potosí 1.58 – over 2.5 at 60%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí?
Friday 13 November 2026, 00:00 WAT – Copa De La División Profesional.