- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 1.23
- Σλ total
- 2.34
- P(over 2.5)
- 43%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.1%
Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Plaza Colonia v Rentistas: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Plaza Colonia v Rentistas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza Colonia (home) | 1.66 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 1.15 |
| Rentistas (away) | 1.38 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 1.07 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.87 × 0.79 ≈ 1.15
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.22 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.24 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.34 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 1.23
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 33.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Plaza Colonia | 36.6% | 38.0% | 32.3% | 35.6% |
| X Draw | 30.5% | 18.0% | 29.8% | 23.0% |
| 2 Rentistas | 32.9% | 44.0% | 37.9% | 41.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Plaza Colonia | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.76 | 36.2% | -1.7% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.36 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -31.4% | |
| 2 · Rentistas | 41.4% | 2.41 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -2.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -15.7% | |
| X2 | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -15.0% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Plaza Colonia | 46.2% | 2.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rentistas | 53.8% | 1.86 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | 2.78 | 36.0% | -10.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -10.6% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -6.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -16.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -5.1% | |
| BTTS no | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -12.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.4% | 3.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.8% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.9% | 3.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.574 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.064 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Plaza Colonia | Rentistas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWDLL | WDWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 23 / 41% for home, draw, away. Standings: Plaza Colonia 4th on 38, Rentistas 2nd on 43.
Form
Plaza Colonia have one win from their last six (D D W D L L). Latest: 1–1 away at Miramar. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Rentistas: W D W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to La Luz. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Plaza Colonia 0, Rentistas 1, drawn 1, 2.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Rentistas 2–1 Plaza Colonia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Plaza Colonia 1.11 · Rentistas 1.23 · total 2.34. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 43%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 57%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.74. Most probable score: Plaza Colonia 0–1 Rentistas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 16 Sep 2026Rentistas2–1Plaza Colonia
- 10 Aug 2026Rentistas1–1Plaza Colonia
Segunda División table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oriental | 6 | +3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Plaza Colonia | 6 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Fenix | 6 | +6 | 11 |
| 4 |  Sportivo Huracan | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 5 |  Colón | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 |  Rentistas | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Cerrito | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 |  La Luz | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Miramar | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Paysandu | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Atenas | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 |  CA River Plate | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Tacuarembo | 6 | -4 | 3 |
More Segunda División predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.63 by the bookmakers.
What are the Plaza Colonia v Rentistas probabilities?
Plaza Colonia win 36%, draw 23%, Rentistas win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?
Plaza Colonia 0–1 Rentistas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?
Plaza Colonia 1.11, Rentistas 1.23 – over 2.5 at 43%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Plaza Colonia vs Rentistas?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Prandi – Segunda División.