- λ home
- 1.27
- λ away
- 1.23
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 58%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.8%
Wanderers vs Juventud prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Wanderers 40% · draw 22% · Juventud 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Wanderers v Juventud: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Wanderers v Juventud are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.42 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.57 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.27, λaway = 1.23
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 37.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Wanderers | – | 39.0% | 40.4% | 39.6% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Juventud | – | 43.0% | 30.9% | 37.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Wanderers | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -12.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Juventud | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.88 | 34.7% | +9.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -15.6% | |
| X2 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.2% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +3.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Wanderers | 51.1% | 1.96 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventud | 48.9% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -6.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -4.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -7.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -3.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -10.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -4.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 58.1% | 1.72 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +4.6% | |
| BTTS no | 41.9% | 2.39 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -20.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 28.4% | 3.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.4% | 3.65 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.581 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.046 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.058 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Wanderers | Juventud |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLD | DLWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-4 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 40 / 22 / 38% for home, draw, away. Standings: Wanderers 10th on 16, Juventud 8th on 18.
Form
Wanderers, last six: L D L L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 0–4 away at Lito. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Juventud: D L W D L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Liverpool Montevideo. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Juventud 2–5 Wanderers. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Wanderers 1.27 · Juventud 1.23 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 58%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 58%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Wanderers 2–1 Juventud. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 31 May 2026Juventud2–5Wanderers
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Atletico Torque | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 4 |  Racing Montevideo | 36 | +14 | 61 |
| 5 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 36 | -8 | 38 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 36 | -18 | 36 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Wanderers vs Juventud?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Wanderers v Juventud probabilities?
Wanderers win 40%, draw 22%, Juventud win 38%.
What is the most probable score for Wanderers vs Juventud?
Wanderers 2–1 Juventud is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Wanderers vs Juventud?
Wanderers 1.27, Juventud 1.23 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 58%.
What time is Wanderers vs Juventud?
Tuesday 17 November 2026, 00:00 WAT, at Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera – Primera División Apertura.