- λ home
- 1.73
- λ away
- 0.79
- Σλ total
- 2.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.9%
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Deportivo Maldonado v Cerro: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Deportivo Maldonado v Cerro are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (28 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado (home) | 1.28 | 1.07 | 1.12 | 1.53 |
| Cerro (away) | 1.08 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.77 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.28 × 1.07 × 1.12 ≈ 1.53
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.30 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.40 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.73, λaway = 0.79
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Maldonado | 54.2% | 62.0% | 57.3% | 60.0% |
| X Draw | 27.3% | 22.0% | 23.7% | 22.7% |
| 2 Cerro | 18.5% | 16.0% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Maldonado | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -13.7% | |
| 2 · Cerro | 17.2% | 5.80 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -18.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.2% | |
| X2 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Maldonado | 77.7% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cerro | 22.3% | 4.48 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.5% | 3.63 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -3.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -11.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -4.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.1% | 1.81 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +10.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -22.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.1% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 15.6% | 6.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.551 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.103 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.103 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Maldonado | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWLWD | LLDWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Deportivo Maldonado at 60%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Deportivo Maldonado 5th on 22, Cerro 6th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Deportivo Maldonado: D W W L W D, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–0 away at Albion FC. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Cerro have one win from their last six (L L D W L D). Latest: 1–2 at home to Central Espanol. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Cerro 1–2 Deportivo Maldonado. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Maldonado 1.73 · Cerro 0.79 · total 2.52. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.81. Most probable score: Deportivo Maldonado 2–1 Cerro. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Sep 2026Cerro1–2Deportivo Maldonado
Primera División Apertura table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Atletico Torque | 36 | +18 | 64 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 36 | +21 | 63 |
| 4 |  Racing Montevideo | 36 | +14 | 61 |
| 5 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Central Espanol | 36 | -12 | 44 |
| 10 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 |  Cerro | 36 | -23 | 40 |
| 12 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 |  Cerro Largo | 36 | -8 | 38 |
| 14 |  Boston River | 36 | -14 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 36 | -18 | 36 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Maldonado v Cerro probabilities?
Deportivo Maldonado win 60%, draw 23%, Cerro win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado 2–1 Cerro is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado 1.73, Cerro 0.79 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 20:30 WAT, at Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel – Primera División Apertura.