- λ home
- 1.83
- λ away
- 1.69
- Σλ total
- 3.52
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 9.1%
Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Trinidad and Tobago 59% · draw 17% · Antigua and Barbuda 24%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Trinidad and Tobago v Antigua and Barbuda: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Trinidad and Tobago v Antigua and Barbuda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trinidad and Tobago (home) | 1.67 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.55 |
| Antigua and Barbuda (away) | 1.82 | 1.23 | 0.96 | 2.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 0.98 × 0.94 ≈ 1.55
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.70 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.13 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.59 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.52 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.83, λaway = 1.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 9.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Trinidad and Tobago | 27.5% | 61.0% | 83.1% | 58.6% |
| X Draw | 21.5% | 21.0% | 11.5% | 17.2% |
| 2 Antigua and Barbuda | 51.0% | 18.0% | 5.3% | 24.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.084 → 8.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Trinidad and Tobago | 58.6% | 1.71 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -34.9% | |
| X · Draw | 17.2% | 5.82 | 8.00 | 12.5% | +37.6% | |
| 2 · Antigua and Barbuda | 24.2% | 4.14 | 17.25 | 5.8% | +317.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 41.4% | 2.42 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +127.6% | |
| 12 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.04 | 96.2% | -13.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Trinidad and Tobago | 70.8% | 1.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Antigua and Barbuda | 29.2% | 3.42 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.36 | 6.55 | 15.3% | -11.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -7.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.88 | 53.2% | -9.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.3% | 1.69 | 2.03 | 49.3% | +20.3% | |
| BTTS no | 40.7% | 2.45 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -31.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.8% | 2.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.0% | 2.78 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.2% | 3.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.593 × 2.03 − 1 = +0.203 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.197 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Trinidad and Tobago | Antigua and Barbuda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLLLL | LWWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 1-1-4 | 3-0-2 |
| Points per match | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 2.60 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% |
| BTTS | 67% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Trinidad and Tobago ahead at 59%, against 24% for Antigua and Barbuda and 17% for the draw.
Form
Trinidad and Tobago, last six: W D L L L L – one win in total. Latest: 3–2 away at Antigua and Barbuda. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Antigua and Barbuda have three wins from their last five (L W W W L). Latest: 2–3 at home to Trinidad and Tobago. 2.6 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): Antigua and Barbuda 2–3 Trinidad and Tobago. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Trinidad and Tobago 1.83 · Antigua and Barbuda 1.69 · total 3.52. Goals expected – 69% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 2.03 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Trinidad and Tobago 2–1 Antigua and Barbuda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Nov 2026Antigua and Barbuda2–3Trinidad and Tobago
More CONCACAF Nations League predictions
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GuatemalaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 2.03 by the bookmakers.
What are the Trinidad and Tobago v Antigua and Barbuda probabilities?
Trinidad and Tobago win 59%, draw 17%, Antigua and Barbuda win 24%.
What is the most probable score for Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda?
Trinidad and Tobago 2–1 Antigua and Barbuda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda?
Trinidad and Tobago 1.83, Antigua and Barbuda 1.69 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Trinidad and Tobago vs Antigua and Barbuda?
Tuesday 17 November 2026, 01:00 WAT, at Hasely Crawford Stadium – CONCACAF Nations League.