- λ home
- 1.63
- λ away
- 1.40
- Σλ total
- 3.03
- P(over 2.5)
- 59%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.0%
Scotland U21 vs USA U21 prediction & xG model: Draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Scotland U21 29% · draw 52% · USA U21 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Scotland U21 v USA U21: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Scotland U21 v USA U21 are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.06 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.03 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.63, λaway = 1.40
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 33.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Scotland U21 | – | 18.0% | 43.7% | 28.8% |
| X Draw | – | 71.0% | 26.4% | 52.3% |
| 2 USA U21 | – | 11.0% | 29.9% | 18.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.115 → 11.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Scotland U21 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -40.9% | |
| X · Draw pick | 52.3% | 1.91 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +77.7% | |
| 2 · USA U21 | 18.9% | 5.28 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -43.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +7.8% | |
| X2 | 71.2% | 1.40 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +18.9% | |
| 12 | 47.7% | 2.09 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -38.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Scotland U21 | 60.3% | 1.66 | – | – | – | |
| DNB USA U21 | 39.7% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.2% | 5.21 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -4.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -6.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -4.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.4% | |
| BTTS no | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -5.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 33.4% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 27.3% | 3.67 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.523 × 3.40 − 1 = +0.777 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.324 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Scotland U21 | USA U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWLD | L |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-1 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 0% |
| BTTS | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 100% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Scotland U21 29%, draw 52%, USA U21 19%.
Form
Scotland U21, last five: W W W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 4–0 at home to Ukraine U21. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Scotland U21 1.63 · USA U21 1.40 · total 3.03. High total: over 2.5 59%, BTTS 62%.
Model selection
Selection: Draw, probability 52%, odds 3.40 v fair 1.91. Most probable score: Scotland U21 1–1 USA U21. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
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Denmark U20Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Scotland U21 vs USA U21?
The Model pick is Draw with a model probability of 52, priced around 3.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Scotland U21 v USA U21 probabilities?
Scotland U21 win 29%, draw 52%, USA U21 win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Scotland U21 vs USA U21?
Scotland U21 1–1 USA U21 is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Scotland U21 vs USA U21?
Scotland U21 1.63, USA U21 1.40 – over 2.5 at 59%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is Scotland U21 vs USA U21?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT – Friendlies.