Friendlies Tue 10 Nov 2026 Full time

Vietnam U23

LDWLL

3–0

Half-time 2–0

Thailand U23

LWWLL

58%P(1)24%P(X)18%P(2)

λ home: 1.88
λ away: 0.96
Σλ total: 2.83
P(over 2.5): 51%
P(BTTS): 59%
Modal score: 1–0 11.0%

Vietnam U23 vs Thailand U23 prediction & xG model: Vietnam U23 to win

Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓

The Arena debate · settled

Vietnam U23 v Thailand U23: how the Arena called it

Full time: 3–0
Votes: 0
Takes: 0
Back / fade: 0 / 0

Full time

Arena tipVietnam U23 to win✓
VotersNobody called this one–

Your call Voting closed at kick-off

This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Vietnam U23 v Thailand U23 are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 7 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Vietnam U23 (home)	1.69	0.96	1.39	2.25
Thailand U23 (away)	1.21	1.07	0.72	0.93

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.69 × 0.96 × 1.39 ≈ 2.25

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.18	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.13	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	2.59	30%
Blended total λ	2.83	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 1.88, λ_away = 0.96

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Vietnam U23 λ = 1.88

015.3%

128.7%

227.0%

316.9%

47.9%

5+4.2%

Thailand U23 λ = 0.96

038.4%

136.8%

217.6%

35.6%

41.3%

5+0.3%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Vie \ Tha012345+

05.95.62.70.9··

111115.11.6··

2109.94.71.5··

36.56.23.00.9··

43.02.91.4···

5+1.61.50.7···

Σ home-win cells: 58.9%
Σ draw cells: 22.3%
Σ away-win cells: 18.8%
Most probable score: 1–0 · 11.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Vietnam U23	66.4%	66.0%	47.0%	58.0%
X Draw	19.5%	20.0%	29.6%	24.0%
2 Thailand U23	14.0%	14.0%	23.4%	18.0%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Vietnam U23 pick	58.0%	1.72	1.92	52.1%	+11.4%
X · Draw	24.0%	4.16	3.05	32.8%	-26.7%
2 · Thailand U23	18.0%	5.57	3.85	26.0%	-30.8%
Double chance
1X	82.0%	1.22	1.17	85.5%	-4.0%
X2	42.0%	2.38	1.68	59.5%	-29.5%
12	76.0%	1.32	1.26	79.4%	-4.3%
Draw no bet
DNB Vietnam U23	76.4%	1.31	–	–	–
DNB Thailand U23	23.6%	4.23	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	74.3%	1.35	1.27	78.7%	-5.6%
Under 1.5	25.7%	3.90	3.14	31.8%	-19.4%
Over 2.5	50.8%	1.97	1.92	52.1%	-2.4%
Under 2.5	49.2%	2.03	1.76	56.8%	-13.5%
Over 3.5	29.9%	3.34	3.20	31.3%	-4.3%
Under 3.5	70.1%	1.43	1.26	79.4%	-11.7%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	59.2%	1.69	1.75	57.1%	+3.6%
BTTS no	40.8%	2.45	1.93	51.8%	-21.3%
Half-time
HT 1	42.7%	2.34	–	–	–
HT X	39.7%	2.52	–	–	–
HT 2	17.6%	5.67	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickVietnam U23 to win

Probability58.0%

Fair odds1.72

Best odds1.92

EV per unit+11.4%

EV = 0.580 × 1.92 − 1 = +0.114 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.124 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Vietnam U23	Thailand U23
Sequence	LLWDLL	LLWWLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	1-1-4	2-0-4
Points per match	0.67	1.00
Goals for / match	0.50	2.00
Goals against / match	1.50	2.83
Over 2.5	17%	100%
BTTS	17%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	67%	33%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Vietnam U23 ahead at 58%, against 18% for Thailand U23 and 24% for the draw.

Form

Vietnam U23 have one win from their last six (L L W D L L). Latest: 0–4 away at Korea Republic U23. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.

Thailand U23 have two wins from their last six (L L W W L L). Latest: 0–3 away at China PR U23. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Mar 2026): Thailand U23 1–0 Vietnam U23. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Vietnam U23 1.88 · Thailand U23 0.96 · total 2.83. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 59%.

Model selection (graded)

Pre-match selection: Vietnam U23 to win, probability 58%, odds 1.92 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Vietnam U23 1–0 Thailand U23. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.