- λ home
- 1.12
- λ away
- 1.27
- Σλ total
- 2.38
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.0%
Salitas vs Maya prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Salitas 31% · draw 27% · Maya 42%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Salitas v Maya: what are you seeing?
- 19′
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Salitas v Maya are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (10 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salitas (home) | 1.05 | 0.84 | 1.35 | 1.19 |
| Maya (away) | 1.02 | 0.97 | 1.28 | 1.26 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.05 × 0.84 × 1.35 ≈ 1.19
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.45 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.38 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.12, λaway = 1.27
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 32.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 39.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Salitas | 33.9% | 39.0% | 24.0% | 30.9% |
| X Draw | 28.7% | 19.0% | 31.0% | 27.4% |
| 2 Maya | 37.4% | 42.0% | 45.0% | 41.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Salitas | 30.9% | 3.23 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +16.0% | |
| X · Draw | 27.4% | 3.65 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -20.5% | |
| 2 · Maya | 41.7% | 2.40 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -16.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 58.3% | 1.71 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -2.6% | |
| X2 | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -17.1% | |
| 12 | 72.6% | 1.38 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Salitas | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Maya | 57.4% | 1.74 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.2% | 3.21 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.1% | 2.50 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +0.1% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -10.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.8% | 4.59 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 54.3% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.2% | 3.97 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.5% | 3.39 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.101 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Salitas | Maya |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLLDW | LLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 40% |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 20% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Maya narrowly ahead at 42%; Salitas 31%. Standings: Salitas 16th on 4, Maya 13th on 6.
Form
Salitas, last six: W L L L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at FocuSport. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Sequence for Maya: L L W D L, so one victory in five. Latest: 1–4 away at Sporting Cascades. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Salitas 1.12 · Maya 1.27 · total 2.38. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 46%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Salitas 0–1 Maya. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Ligue 1 table
League page →
More Ligue 1 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Salitas vs Maya?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Salitas v Maya probabilities?
Salitas win 31%, draw 27%, Maya win 42%.
What is the most probable score for Salitas vs Maya?
Salitas 0–1 Maya is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Salitas vs Maya?
Salitas 1.12, Maya 1.27 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Salitas vs Maya?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT, at Stade du 4 Aout – Ligue 1.