- λ home
- 1.18
- λ away
- 1.28
- Σλ total
- 2.46
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Mount Pleasant Academy vs Portmore United prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Mount Pleasant Academy v Portmore United: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Mount Pleasant Academy v Portmore United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (34 and 23 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant Academy (home) | 1.66 | 1.08 | 0.76 | 1.36 |
| Portmore United (away) | 1.38 | 1.19 | 0.70 | 1.15 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.08 × 0.76 ≈ 1.36
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.51 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.46 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.47 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.46 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.18, λaway = 1.28
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 38.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Mount Pleasant Academy | 40.8% | 42.0% | 28.6% | 36.4% |
| X Draw | 28.1% | 18.0% | 29.3% | 22.7% |
| 2 Portmore United | 31.1% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 40.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.108 → 10.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Mount Pleasant Academy | 36.4% | 2.75 | 3.16 | 31.6% | +14.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -30.0% | |
| 2 · Portmore United | 40.9% | 2.44 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -12.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.1% | 1.69 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -9.0% | |
| X2 | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -19.8% | |
| 12 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -2.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Mount Pleasant Academy | 47.1% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Portmore United | 52.9% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | 1.32 | 75.8% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.5% | 3.28 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -12.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.7% | 2.24 | 2.05 | 48.8% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -8.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.10 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -12.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -8.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -13.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 26.4% | 3.79 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.5% | 2.25 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.1% | 3.43 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.533 × 1.81 − 1 = -0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Portmore United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDWL | LWDDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 36 / 23 / 41% for home, draw, away.
Form
Mount Pleasant Academy have three wins from their last six (W W D D W L). Latest: 2–1 at home to Montego Bay United. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded.
Portmore United have three wins from their last six (L W D D W W). Latest: 1–2 away at Violette AC. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 5: Mount Pleasant Academy 3, Portmore United 1, drawn 1, 2.4 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Portmore United 0–1 Mount Pleasant Academy. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Mount Pleasant Academy 1.18 · Portmore United 1.28 · total 2.46. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 1.81 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Mount Pleasant Academy 1–2 Portmore United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 10 Sep 2026Portmore United0–1Mount Pleasant Academy
- 21 May 2026Mount Pleasant Academy1–2Portmore United
- 18 May 2026Portmore United0–1Mount Pleasant Academy
- 24 Mar 2026Mount Pleasant Academy4–1Portmore United
- 2 Mar 2026Mount Pleasant Academy1–1Portmore United
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Mount Pleasant Academy vs Portmore United?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.81 by the bookmakers.
What are the Mount Pleasant Academy v Portmore United probabilities?
Mount Pleasant Academy win 36%, draw 23%, Portmore United win 41%.
What is the most probable score for Mount Pleasant Academy vs Portmore United?
Mount Pleasant Academy 1–2 Portmore United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Mount Pleasant Academy vs Portmore United?
Mount Pleasant Academy 1.18, Portmore United 1.28 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Mount Pleasant Academy vs Portmore United?
Thursday 12 November 2026, 21:00 WAT – Premier League.