- λ home
- 1.02
- λ away
- 0.77
- Σλ total
- 1.79
- P(over 2.5)
- 29%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.0%
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Godoy Cruz 42% · draw 30% · Tristan Suarez 27%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Godoy Cruz v Tristan Suarez: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Godoy Cruz v Tristan Suarez are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz (home) | 1.22 | 1.75 | 0.43 | 0.92 |
| Tristan Suarez (away) | 0.78 | 0.90 | 1.02 | 0.71 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.22 × 1.75 × 0.43 ≈ 0.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.93 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.79 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.02, λaway = 0.77
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 32.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Godoy Cruz | 37.4% | 47.0% | 43.7% | 42.3% |
| X Draw | 36.5% | 19.0% | 31.3% | 30.2% |
| 2 Tristan Suarez | 26.1% | 34.0% | 25.0% | 27.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.065 → 6.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Godoy Cruz | 42.3% | 2.37 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -9.1% | |
| X · Draw | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -9.3% | |
| 2 · Tristan Suarez | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +3.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -7.2% | |
| X2 | 57.7% | 1.73 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -6.5% | |
| 12 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Godoy Cruz | 60.6% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Tristan Suarez | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -10.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 44.5% | 2.24 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -2.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 12.6% | 7.92 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -18.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 87.4% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -3.0% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.6% | 2.24 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +11.5% | |
| BTTS no | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 27.6% | 3.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 52.7% | 1.90 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.7% | 5.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.715 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Godoy Cruz | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWD | DDWDDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 2-4-0 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 0% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Godoy Cruz ahead at 42%, against 27% for Tristan Suarez and 30% for the draw. Standings: Godoy Cruz 1st on 66, Tristan Suarez 1st on 64.
Form
Godoy Cruz have four wins from their last six (W W W D W D). Latest: 2–1 at home to Almirante Brown. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Tristan Suarez, last six: D D W D D W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Deportivo Maipu. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Godoy Cruz 1.02 · Tristan Suarez 0.77 · total 1.79. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 71%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 71%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.40. Most probable score: Godoy Cruz 1–0 Tristan Suarez. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera Nacional table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Godoy Cruz | 36 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 36 | +7 | 66 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 36 | +16 | 61 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 36 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 36 | +18 | 60 |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 36 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 36 | -3 | 51 |
| 8 |  CA Estudiantes | 36 | 0 | 49 |
| 9 |  Chaco For Ever | 36 | +2 | 46 |
| 10 |  Los Andes | 36 | +1 | 43 |
| 11 |  All Boys | 36 | -8 | 41 |
| 12 |  San Telmo | 36 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Atletico Mitre | 36 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 |  Racing Cordoba | 36 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 36 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 |  Central Norte | 36 | -9 | 38 |
| 17 |  Acassuso | 36 | -10 | 35 |
| 18 |  San Miguel | 36 | -15 | 33 |
More Primera Nacional predictions
League page →
Gimnasia Jujuy2
ColegialesFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 71, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Godoy Cruz v Tristan Suarez probabilities?
Godoy Cruz win 42%, draw 30%, Tristan Suarez win 27%.
What is the most probable score for Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez?
Godoy Cruz 1–0 Tristan Suarez is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez?
Godoy Cruz 1.02, Tristan Suarez 0.77 – over 2.5 at 29%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 21:00 WAT, at Estadio Feliciano Gambarte – Primera Nacional.