- λ home
- 1.59
- λ away
- 0.69
- Σλ total
- 2.28
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.3%
Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu prediction & xG model: Deportivo Madryn to win
Deportivo Madryn v Deportivo Maipu: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Deportivo Madryn v Deportivo Maipu are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (26 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Madryn (home) | 1.22 | 1.35 | 0.84 | 1.39 |
| Deportivo Maipu (away) | 0.78 | 0.99 | 0.82 | 0.63 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.22 × 1.35 × 0.84 ≈ 1.39
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.02 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.22 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.32 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.28 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.59, λaway = 0.69
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 16.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Deportivo Madryn | 54.1% | 62.0% | 53.0% | 58.2% |
| X Draw | 29.3% | 24.0% | 29.6% | 26.3% |
| 2 Deportivo Maipu | 16.6% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.091 → 9.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Deportivo Madryn pick | 58.2% | 1.72 | 1.73 | 57.8% | +0.7% | |
| X · Draw | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -18.4% | |
| 2 · Deportivo Maipu | 15.5% | 6.47 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -18.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -6.2% | |
| X2 | 41.8% | 2.39 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -0.5% | |
| 12 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Deportivo Madryn | 79.0% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Deportivo Maipu | 21.0% | 4.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -7.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -4.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.6% | 4.84 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -10.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +4.3% | |
| BTTS no | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -15.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.9% | 2.22 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.4% | 6.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.582 × 1.73 − 1 = +0.007 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.010 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Deportivo Madryn | Deportivo Maipu |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDLWD | DWLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Deportivo Madryn 58%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maipu 15%. Standings: Deportivo Madryn 4th on 60, Deportivo Maipu 6th on 52.
Form
Deportivo Madryn have three wins from their last six (W W D L W D). Latest: 1–0 away at San Miguel. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Deportivo Maipu, last six: D W L D W W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Tristan Suarez. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Deportivo Madryn 1.59 · Deportivo Maipu 0.69 · total 2.28. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Selection: Deportivo Madryn to win, probability 58%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.72. Most probable score: Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Deportivo Maipu. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Primera Nacional table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Godoy Cruz | 36 | +20 | 66 |
| 2 |  Ferro Carril Oeste | 36 | +7 | 66 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Moron | 36 | +16 | 61 |
| 4 |  Deportivo Madryn | 36 | +21 | 60 |
| 5 |  Colon Santa Fe | 36 | +18 | 60 |
| 6 |  Almirante Brown | 36 | +4 | 51 |
| 7 |  Ciudad de Bolívar | 36 | -3 | 51 |
| 8 |  CA Estudiantes | 36 | 0 | 49 |
| 9 |  Chaco For Ever | 36 | +2 | 46 |
| 10 |  Los Andes | 36 | +1 | 43 |
| 11 |  All Boys | 36 | -8 | 41 |
| 12 |  San Telmo | 36 | -11 | 41 |
| 13 |  Atletico Mitre | 36 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 |  Racing Cordoba | 36 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 |  Defensores De Belgrano | 36 | -9 | 39 |
| 16 |  Central Norte | 36 | -9 | 38 |
| 17 |  Acassuso | 36 | -10 | 35 |
| 18 |  San Miguel | 36 | -15 | 33 |
More Primera Nacional predictions
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Midland0Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?
The Model pick is Deportivo Madryn to win with a model probability of 58, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Deportivo Madryn v Deportivo Maipu probabilities?
Deportivo Madryn win 58%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maipu win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?
Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Deportivo Maipu is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?
Deportivo Madryn 1.59, Deportivo Maipu 0.69 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Deportivo Madryn vs Deportivo Maipu?
Saturday 14 November 2026, 23:00 WAT, at Estadio Abel Sastre – Primera Nacional.