- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 0.96
- Σλ total
- 2.25
- P(over 2.5)
- 45%
- P(BTTS)
- 47%
- Modal score
- 1–0 13.6%
Municipal Grecia vs Cariari Pococi prediction & xG model: Not both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Municipal Grecia v Cariari Pococi: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipNot both teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
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How the numbers for Municipal Grecia v Cariari Pococi are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (19 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Grecia (home) | 1.48 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 1.27 |
| Cariari Pococi (away) | 1.14 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.82 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.48 × 0.91 × 0.94 ≈ 1.27
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.09 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.04 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.68 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.25 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 0.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 44.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 27.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 13.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Municipal Grecia | 45.9% | 43.0% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| X Draw | 30.6% | 11.0% | 27.9% | 25.0% |
| 2 Cariari Pococi | 23.5% | 46.0% | 29.2% | 31.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Municipal Grecia | 43.4% | 2.31 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -9.8% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -19.9% | |
| 2 · Cariari Pococi | 31.6% | 3.16 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -3.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.26 | 79.4% | -13.8% | |
| X2 | 56.6% | 1.77 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -11.1% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Municipal Grecia | 57.8% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cariari Pococi | 42.2% | 2.37 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 69.7% | 1.44 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -14.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 3.42 | 29.2% | +3.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44.6% | 2.24 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -18.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +1.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.3% | 4.11 | 3.05 | 32.8% | -25.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.7% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.2% | 2.12 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -21.7% | |
| BTTS no pick | 52.8% | 1.89 | 2.01 | 49.8% | +6.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.5% | 3.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.6% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 21.8% | 4.58 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.528 × 2.01 − 1 = +0.062 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.061 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Municipal Grecia | Cariari Pococi |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDWL | LWLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Municipal Grecia ahead at 43%, against 32% for Cariari Pococi and 25% for the draw. Standings: Municipal Grecia 6th on 21, Cariari Pococi 5th on 22.
Form
Municipal Grecia, last six: W W L D W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 away at ADR Jicaral. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Cariari Pococi: L W L W L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at AD Carmelita. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Municipal Grecia 1.29 · Cariari Pococi 0.96 · total 2.25. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 45%, BTTS 47%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Not both teams to score, probability 53%, odds 2.01 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Municipal Grecia 1–0 Cariari Pococi. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Liga De Ascenso table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rosario | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 2 |  ADR Jicaral | 12 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 |  Santa Ana | 14 | +7 | 27 |
| 4 |  Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 14 | +1 | 23 |
| 5 |  Cariari Pococi | 14 | +4 | 22 |
| 6 |  Municipal Grecia | 12 | +3 | 21 |
| 7 |  Guadalupe FC | 14 | -1 | 21 |
| 8 |  AD Sarchí | 12 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Futbol Consultants Moravia | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Quepos Cambute | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 11 |  AD Carmelita | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 12 |  CS Uruguay | 14 | -18 | 9 |
| 13 |  AD Cofutpa | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 14 |  Santa Cruz FC | 12 | -13 | 6 |
More Liga De Ascenso predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Municipal Grecia vs Cariari Pococi?
The Model pick is Not both teams to score with a model probability of 53, priced around 2.01 by the bookmakers.
What are the Municipal Grecia v Cariari Pococi probabilities?
Municipal Grecia win 43%, draw 25%, Cariari Pococi win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Municipal Grecia vs Cariari Pococi?
Municipal Grecia 1–0 Cariari Pococi is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Municipal Grecia vs Cariari Pococi?
Municipal Grecia 1.29, Cariari Pococi 0.96 – over 2.5 at 45%, BTTS at 47%.
What time is Municipal Grecia vs Cariari Pococi?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 02:00 WAT – Liga De Ascenso.