- λ home
- 1.61
- λ away
- 0.53
- Σλ total
- 2.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 38%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 18.9%
Cipolletti vs Juventud Antoniana prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cipolletti 66% · draw 21% · Juventud Antoniana 14%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cipolletti v Juventud Antoniana: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cipolletti v Juventud Antoniana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 1.97 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.29 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.61, λaway = 0.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 64.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.9%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 18.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cipolletti | – | 75.0% | 52.8% | 65.7% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 27.2% | 20.7% |
| 2 Juventud Antoniana | – | 9.0% | 20.0% | 13.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cipolletti | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.70 | 58.8% | +11.7% | |
| X · Draw | 20.7% | 4.83 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -31.7% | |
| 2 · Juventud Antoniana | 13.6% | 7.35 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -38.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -3.2% | |
| X2 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -33.1% | |
| 12 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -0.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cipolletti | 82.8% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventud Antoniana | 17.2% | 5.83 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -8.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -5.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38.1% | 2.62 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -10.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -2.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.3% | 5.17 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -16.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 80.7% | 1.24 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.8% | 2.01 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +9.5% | |
| BTTS no | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -18.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.2% | 2.31 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.1% | 9.02 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.807 × 1.20 − 1 = -0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cipolletti | Juventud Antoniana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWWL | LLWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 17% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Cipolletti at 66%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Cipolletti 12th on 25, Juventud Antoniana 11th on 25.
Form
Sequence for Cipolletti: W W D W W L, so four victories in six. Latest: 1–0 away at Juventud Antoniana. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.3 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Juventud Antoniana: L L W L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Cipolletti. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Cipolletti 2, Juventud Antoniana 0, drawn 0, 1.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Juventud Antoniana 0–1 Cipolletti. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cipolletti 1.61 · Juventud Antoniana 0.53 · total 2.14. Low total: under 2.5 62%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 81%, odds 1.20 v fair 1.24. Most probable score: Cipolletti 1–0 Juventud Antoniana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 8 Nov 2026Juventud Antoniana0–1Cipolletti
- 19 Sep 2026Juventud Antoniana0–2Cipolletti
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cipolletti vs Juventud Antoniana?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 81, priced around 1.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cipolletti v Juventud Antoniana probabilities?
Cipolletti win 66%, draw 21%, Juventud Antoniana win 14%.
What is the most probable score for Cipolletti vs Juventud Antoniana?
Cipolletti 1–0 Juventud Antoniana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cipolletti vs Juventud Antoniana?
Cipolletti 1.61, Juventud Antoniana 0.53 – over 2.5 at 38%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Cipolletti vs Juventud Antoniana?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 19:00 WAT, at La Visera de Cemento – Torneo Federal A.